17 May 2004

Yudhoyono Still In Front In Indonesia

Golkar claimed victory in last month's parliamentary election, winning at least 117 seats in the House of People's Representatives, followed by the PDIP with 104 lawmakers.

All three candidates have picked running mates for the election. Yudhoyono chose welfare minister Jusuf Kalla, while Sukarnoputri will run alongside Hasyim Muzadi of moderate Muslim group Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). Wiranto settled on deputy chairman of the National Commission on Human Rights Solahuddin Wahid as his vice-presidential nominee.

If no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots in the Jul. 5 presidential contest, a run-off will take place on Sept. 20.

Polling Data
What candidate would you vote for in the presidential election?

  • Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (PDI) 40.6%
  • Megawati Sukarnoputri (PDIP) 14.7%
  • Wiranto (Golkar) 5.9%

The full list of candidates for president and vice-president is now finalised. The only remaining surprise is whether Gus Dur will beat the medical requirements. His brother, Gus Solah, is already Wiranto's runningmate. Gus Dur's announced the PKB will back Wiranto if Gus Dur is excuded.

On these figures Yudhoyono has extended his lead and is only 9.4% short of winning on the first round. The Golkar legislative vote is not flowing through to Wiranto.

A Wiranto victory would have to be seen as a victory for impunity. Although Yudhoyono is also a former general he's moved a lot further and faster than Wiranto in separating himself from the Shuharto era.

As chief security minister Yudhoyono supervised Polri (Polis Republik Indonesia), the newly independent national police. Polri was only separated from the armed forces, TNI, after the fall of Suharto. Polri/TNI tensions go back a long way.

Yudhoyono had to deal with the aftermath of the Bali bombing and probably has a better grasp of human rights than Wiranto, who continues to deny any role in the massacres after the East Timor independence vote.

No comments: