6 April 2004

Counting Indonesia

According to the KPU (electoral commission):

  • PDIP 18.5%
  • PKB 15.25
  • Golkar 14.04
  • PD 13.4
  • PKS 11.57
  • PPP 7.03

This is not what the polls predicted. It may just be an outlier called by early voting. It appears to be on a count of about 0.5%. If this trend stands the party of Gus Dur is running second to the party of Megawati. The Muslim parties have done better than expected and Golkar has done significantly worse. You'd expect Golkar to look weak at this stage when the outer islands are still counting. The Muslim surge was not expected at any stage.

The count is now up to 813 000 votes and the percentages are:

  • PDIP 19.05%
  • PKB 18.43
  • Golkar 15.04
  • PD 10.71
  • PKS 9.59
  • PPP 7.45

The surge for the PKB (Gus Dur) seems to be holding. The polls that showed Yudhoyono leading Megawati are not supported by PDIP running around 10 points ahad of PD. These figures (as always if they hold) are very bad news for Amien Rais, MPR Speaker and PAN leader. On these figures PAN is no longer a major party. Tutut's paln to succeed her father has only 2.1% so she can be dropped from the list of presidenciables. So probably, can Rais.

With the count at 1,393,540, PKB is has fallen away. Yudhoyono's presidential candidacy looks a lot stronger. PDIP is doing better than expected and Golkar is doing much worse.

  • PDIP 18.7
  • Golkar 15.46
  • PD 13.61
  • PKS 13.4
  • PKB 10.98
  • PPP 6.67
  • PAN.6.44

This is on a count of 3 895 319 so the results are convrging on the poll predictions. The shift is not enough to rescue the presidential ambitions of Amien Rais or Tutut.

  • Golkar 23.97
  • PDIP 16.94%
  • PKB 9.87
  • PKS 9.73
  • PD 9.26
  • PPP 6.48
  • PAN 6.26

This morning's SMH reports:

Evidence of this discontent with the lack of reform has come loud and clear through the ballot box in the first elections since Ms Megawati's PDI-P party received a 34 per cent vote in 1999 by promising a future for the country's poor.

In this campaign the PDI-P outspent the other parties by a mile, festooning every town across the country with flags and paying the poor to attend rallies.

But, in the privacy of the polling booth, more than four out of every 10 voters walked away. They went to the Democrat Party, so new it was unheard of three months ago. And they went to the Prosperous Justice Party, not because it supports Islamic law, but because it is considered even by its critics to be clean. And most importantly, they did not return to the Golkar party they used to support out of of fear when Soeharto was running the place.

Many of them might be hungry and fondly remember the economic benefits Soeharto delivered, but they still resent the excesses of his corrupt regime.

Sure, Golkar might have outpolled PDI-P, but this result is a worst-ever, a big slap in the face, especially for its chairman and presidential hopeful Akbar Tandjung. Convicted on bribery charges for stealing money meant for the poor, he convinced the judges he was not guilty.

On the evidence of the Golkar vote, he did not manage to convince too many voters of the same thing. Most of them seem to spit out the word "korupsi" at the mere mention of his name.

This result has thrown the presidential election in July right open. The Democrat Party leader, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, must now be the favourite, not only because his party has come from nowhere, but also because so many people consider him the cleanest of the candidates.

Yudhoyono has a reasonable chance of drawing support from all 4 Islamic parties in the Big 6. That would leave a Golkar/PDIP candidate the impossible task of working from a base of around 40% of the electorate, especially if they run a korupsi candidate like Akbar Tanjung or Wiranto.

On a count of 4,999,330 the Big 6 numbers are:

  • Golkar 25.15
  • PDIP 16.83
  • PKS 9.37
  • PKB 9.25
  • PD 8.76
  • PPP 6.57
  • PAN 6.4

The vast majority of these votes are coming from Java, Bali and Southern Sumatra. Those regions tend to vote PDIP so this is looking very bad for Megawati. The outer islands votes will liey show a surge for Golkar.

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