How silly do we think the Shi'a are? II
"But what happens around Najaf and Karbala in the coming days may turn out to be the key to how the British and Americans are perceived by the Shia. The American troops surrounding Najaf, the resting place of Ali, the son-in-law of the Prophet Mohammed, appear to be aware of that. Many sites in the city have been declared "no targets", to be fired at only in self-defence.

American soldiers drove around the outskirts of the city yesterday, beseeching its inhabitants through loudspeakers mounted on their armoured cars to turn over President Saddam's forces to them, so wary are they of trying to face Iraqi fighters in the streets of Najaf. But US commanders said yesterday there were too many fighters in Najaf to ignore.

Karbala, the resting place of the Prophet's grandson, Hussein, is perhaps even more dangerous for the Americans and the British. So holy is the city to Shia Muslims that many carry soil from Karbala to prayers with them, even in faraway cities in Iran, cut off from Karbala since the Iran-Iraq war."

The war is now at Day 13. The explosion of joy is not happening among the Shi'a. Their leaders know about the plans for a democratic transformation of the Middle East and that the working definition of democracy does not include a Shi'a president of iraq any time in the enar future.

In one sense the Bush war plan is an attempt to escape politics by resorting to force instead of building a consensus at the UN. The escape has been unsuccessful. It has not led to a rising in southern Iraq and (for different reasons that I'll discuss later today) it has not led to a second front in northern Iraq. The Rumsfeld rumbling at the expense of Iran and Syria is unlikely either to enthuse the Shi'a or calm other Middle eastern capitals.