30 July 2004

Yudhoyono Would Win Indonesia�s Run-off

In the Jun. 5 election -- the first ever direct presidential ballot in Indonesia -- Yudhoyono finished in first place with 33.57 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by Megawati with 26.60 per cent. Since no candidate received more than 50 per cent of all votes, a run-off was scheduled for Sept. 20.

Before final first round tallies were published on Jul. 26, Yudhoyono and Megawati were already in talks with other political organizations to secure backing for the run-off. Megawati has reportedly offered eight cabinet posts to members of the Party of the Functional Groups (Golkar) in case she is re-elected.

Polling Data

What candidate would you support in the presidential run-off?

  • Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (PDI) 68%
  • Megawati Sukarnoputri (PDIP) 23%
  • Undecided / No opinion 9%

Source: Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI)
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,190 Indonesian adults, conducted from Jul. 17 to Jul. 19, 2004. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.

LSI consistently overrated Yudhoyono before the first round, as did most other polls. Voters in Indonesia do not stick to the party line at all. The Asia Times reported on 16 July that:

However, according to a survey by the Institute for Research, Education, Economic and Social Affairs (LP3ES), a well-respected research company, voters in the July 5 election ignored party lines to vote for candidates of their own choice. According to the survey, conducted on voting day, only 55% of people who voted for Golkar in the legislative election endorsed the party's candidate Wiranto in the July 5 presidential election; the others went to Yudhoyono (31%) and Megawati (8%). Supporters of the PDI-P were divided as well - 74% chose to vote for Megawati, while 13% supported Yudhoyono and 7% backed Wiranto.

Megawati, despite her reformasi credentials, is a very traditional Indonesian politico. Whether Golkar can actually deliver enough votes for seats to stop the Yudhoyono juggernaut is an open question.

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