15 April 2004

Counting Indonesia II

On a count of 87,784,200:

  • Golkar 20.94%
  • PDIP 19.74%
  • PKB 12.12%
  • PPP 8.27%
  • PD 7.51%
  • PKS 7.13%
  • PAN 6.47%

And the presidenciables are:

  • PDIP President Megawati
  • Golkar DPR Speaker Akbar Tanjung, Ex Defence Minister Wiranto, Suharto Son-in-law Prabowo
  • PS Susilo Yudhoyono
  • PKB Ex President Gus Dur
  • PPP Vice-president Hamzah
  • PAN MPR Speaker Amien Rais

The DPR election has eliminated Tutut, Suharto's daughter and probably Prabowo and Wiranto as well. Amien Rais insists he's running but I cannot see what hopes he has. The back-to Suharto vote appears to be minimal.

Two parties can combine to run a joint ticket for president and vice-president. The possible combinations are Megawati/Tanjung and Megawati/Hamzah. It's hard to see any ticket that includes any two of Megawati, Gus Dur and Amien Rais.

The first round of the presidential election is in June. If no-one gets an absolute majority the two top candidates face a runoff in August. In presidential polls Yudhoyono is standing at over 35%. My guess is a PD/PKB/PKS coaltion against a PDIP/Golkar coalition. PDIP/Golkar would need to massively improve their standing between now and June to win that election. The parties have only a few days to name their candidates and Golkar must choose between Tanjung, Wiranto and Prabowo.

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