out of the loop
One thing argued in favour of the war against Iraq was the loss of prestige Bush would suffer if he backed down. Apparently no-one considered the loss of prestige if Bush abandoned the UN and the structure of international law in favour of might makes right. Worse no-one considered the loss of life, let alone prestige, if the invasion went off course. That has not yet happened, but shock and awe is beginning to look a lot like the old bomber dream.

At the time of writing CENTCOM says that we really and truly have taken Umm Qasr this time, honest. The Basra rising came and went and no doubt soon will come again. The Iraqi 51st Division (which allegedly surrendered on Day 1) seems to have unsurrendered and counterattacked on Day 4. I am not sure if Nasiriya has been taken again today or even if it has been taken for the first time several times today. What I do know is that both coalition divisions now approaching Baghdad have been on the move for 5 days and that takes a toll on any force. What everyone also knows is that reinforcements are being moved to Iraq from the US.

With the Pentagon now rushing thousands of troops from Texas to the Persian Gulf, a number of seasoned Gulf War ground commanders said yesterday that the U.S. invasion force moving rapidly to Baghdad is too small and should have included at least one additional heavy Army division.

"In my judgment, there should have been a minimum of two heavy divisions and an armored cavalry regiment on the ground -- that's how our doctrine reads," said retired Army Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey, who commanded the 24th Mechanized Infantry Division during the 1991 Gulf War.

This campaign, if it runs to its conclusion, will end in Saddam's destruction. Whether the Bush administration has the resolve and political resources to stay that course is becoming an open question. A lot of warfighting theory centres on the OODA loop. The only sign of a collapsing decisional cycle that I can see is the one happening in CENTCOM's inner councils. And that is terrible for the coalition's soldiers and worse for the Iraqi people.