20 September 2004

Counting Indonesia

The KPU (electoral commission) in Indonesia is reporting:

  • Megawati 1 780 154 votes, 41.2564%
  • Yudhoyono 2 534 700 votes, 58.7436%

These results show a clear victory for Yudhoyono, although not as great as the polls predicted. That's on 4.3 million votes out of the the 130 million expected. International monitors have already certified the ballot.

On a count of 6 624 456 votes:

  • Megawati 2 746 222 votes, 41.4558%
  • Yudhoyono 3 878 234 votes, 58.5442%

Yudhoyono is leading all provinces except Bali, North Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, Kepri and Papua. In Aceh he's leading by more than 3 to 1. The Balinese result is probably because of Megawati's family connections there. The Papuan figures are incredibly early.

Sometime I must scribble something about crossover leaders and national independence. The Nehrus were high caste Hundus from Muslim Kashmir. Sukarno was half Javanese and half Balinese.

On 9 808 016 votes

  • Megawati 4 038 379 votes, 41.1743%%
  • Yudhoyono 5 769 637 votes, 58.8257%

Megawati's lead has disappeared in North Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, and Papua.

This result probably means the end of Golkar. They were the party of power under Suharto. They lost the presidency when Habibie's government collapsed in 1999. This year they could not get Wiranto, their candidate, into the runoff election. They then threw their support to Megawati who is suffering a landslide defeat. Golkar seems to be following other parties of power, like the NP in South Africa, into oblivion. The BBC has a good profile of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

On 15 626 656 votes:

  • Megawati 6 428 367 votes, 41.1372%
  • Yudhoyono 9 198 289 votes, 58.8628%

The perils of blogging are much to be feared. It's so easy to google yourself to instant expertise. I was calling the new province of Kepalauan Riau 'Riau Islands' or 'Riau Archipelago' until I discovered it's usually shortened to Kepri.

Megawati is carrying every district in Bali so it looks like she will retain her lead in that province. In Kepri she's only carrying one district and there are no votes at all from the main town, so her lead can be expected to disappear by the time the count is finished.

On 54 061 429 votes:

  • Megawati 21 508 381 votes, 39.7851%
  • Yudhoyono 32 553 048 votes, 60.2149%

Megawati now leads in Bali, Maluku and East Nusa Tenggara. The last two are early results from a single district so they will probably disappear in due course. The most spectacular provincial result is probably Aceh where Yudhoyono has 80.6188% of the vote. There's no way, at this stage of the count, that Megawati can stop the Yudhoyono landslide. The issues Yudhoynono will need to address are a different story entirely. More when the figures are finalised.

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