In 2004, the fate of the Howard government will largely be determined by two states, New South Wales and Queensland.
Of the 78 seats north of the Murray, the Coalition holds 48, the Labor Party's 26, with 3 Independents and a Green. Of the 72 seats in the rest of the country, Labor already holds a majority of 37 seats to the Coalition's 35. In effect, the Howard government's majority is built in New South Wales and Queensland.
On current polling it looks likely the election will be decided in the Coalition's marginal seats. Apart some Marginal Labor seats in Perth, it is hard to see a Labor seat at risk of being lost to the Coalition.
The ABC has it's election guide up. I think Anthony Green is an analyst worth following, because I happen to agree with most of his conclusions. I'd point to the Northern Territory and Queensland as the place where Labor is likely to find most of the 11 seats. I doubt they are places where the free trade agreement with the US will prove all that popular.