6 May 2004

Macam-Macam | Indonesia's 2004 DPR Elections: Final Result

The KPU has finished their counting and Golkar tops the tally. PDI-P ran second and PKB a distant third. Only 7 political parties gained more than 5% of the popular vote thereby permitting them to nominate candidates for the Presidential and Vice-Presidential election on 5 July.

I suspect support for Golkar is overstated and I expect their standing to fall in the presidential election. When an authoritarian regime collapses, the party of power often survives into the transition. In South Africa the New National Party's trajectory was:

  • 1994 20.3%
  • 1999 6.87%
  • 2004 1.65%

The Russian Communist Party's record is:

  • 1999 24.3%
  • 2003 12.6%
  • 2004 13.7%

Obviously this is not an exhaustive list. I think it does show there's often a lag time in an authoritarian party's collapse as people look back with nostalgia to the authoritarian period. At this election Golkar recorded its lowest vote ever, although PDI-P's spectacular collapse eclipsed Golkar's. The PDI-P does not have Golkar's level of institutionalisation and is essentially a personal vehicle for Megawati, whose own standings have crashed faster than her party's.

Presidential polling shows Yudhoyono far in front of Megawati with Wiranto a distant third. I doubt that will change between now and 5 June.

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