15 March 2004

Counting Spain

The Spanish ministry of the interior reported at 21:02 that the PSOE has 43.3% for 162 deputies. The PP has 36.07% for 135 deputies, a swing against the PP of 8.45% in terms of votes. The swing in seats is 183 to 135.


The PSOE is on 43.86 and 162 deputies. The PP is gaining slightly in seats on 36.05% for 138 deputies. 22.33 counted.


PSOE 43.7% and 165 deputies. PP 35.86% and 136 deputies. 29.93% counted.


PSOE 43.79% and 166 deputies. PP 36.32% and 135 deputies. 34.78% counted.


PSOE 43.5% and 164 deputies. PP 36.15% and 135 deputies. 43.29% counted.

I guess at this point you'd have to say that the exit polls understated the PSOE vote significantly and overstated the PP vote, presumably because of a late shift in reaction to President Aznar's handling of the Madrid crime against humanity.


PSOE 43.52% and 160 deputies. PP 36.64% and 140 deputies. 48.39% counted.


PSOE 43.32% and 163 deputies. PP 36.47% and 146 deputies. 56.33% counted.


PSOE 43.4% and 165 deputies. PP 36.81% and 144 deputies. 61.21% counted.


PSOE 43.25% and 165 deputies. PP 36.77% and 146 deputies. 68.46% counted.

As far as I know this is the first election held in a coalition country since the war.


PSOE 43.28% and 164 deputies. PP 37.08% and 147 deputies. 72.15% counted.


PSOE 43.13% and 165 deputies. PP 37.09% and 146 deputies. 76.82% counted.


PSOE 43.13% and 164 deputies. PP 37.26% and 147 deputies. 79.54% counted.


El Mundo reports that the PSOE has claimed victory.


El Mundo reports that interior minister has conceded the ruling PP has lost the election.


PSOE 43.03% and 164 deputies. PP 37.31% and 148 deputies. 83.04% counted.


PSOE 43.01% and 164 deputies. PP 37.47% and 148 deputies. 85.10% counted.

I found a short bio of the new prime minister at Newsday:

Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero of the Socialist Party hopes to end eight years of conservative government after promising to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq and address unaffordable housing and job insecurity at home. Zapatero, 43, trained as a lawyer before becoming the youngest Socialist lawmaker in parliament at 26. He rose to national prominence in 2000 when he took over a party stung by a crushing defeat to Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's Popular Party and still struggling with corruption scandals from its time in government. Zapatero's deliberately quiet, moderate and consensual style has been credited for a revival in the Socialists' fortunes.


PSOE 42.83% and 163 deputies. PP 37.64% and 149 deputies. 93.40% counted.


PSOE 42.77% and 163 deputies. PP 37.64% and 149 deputies. 94.61% counted.


PSOE 42.77% and 163 deputies. PP 37.65% and 149 deputies. 94.89% counted.


PSOE 42.72% and 163 deputies. PP 37.70% and 148 deputies. 96.32% counted.


PSOE 42.69% and 163 deputies. PP 37.68% and 148 deputies. 96.98% counted.


PSOE 42.68% and 163 deputies. PP 37.70% and 148 deputies. 96.98% counted.

The PSOE needs 176 votes to form a government. That means 13 deputies, presumably from the Catalan and Basque nationalist parties. Their policy of withdrawing Spanish forces from Iraq is not good news for the Bush administration. Perhaps a coalition of the willing should include the will of the people, as well as the government. And perhaps governments that manipulate security issues get punished by their electors.


PSOE 42.66% and 163 deputies. PP 37.70% and 148 deputies. 97.94% counted.


PSOE 42.65% and 163 deputies. PP 37.68% and 148 deputies. 98.36% counted.

Russian President Putin won re-election, after intensive manipulation and a blizzard of TV propaganda, by 70%. The Communists ran next with 15%. US Secretary of State Powell expressed concern at the campaign irregularities.


PSOE 42.65% and 163 deputies. PP 37.67% and 148 deputies. 98.45% counted.


PSOE 42.65% and 163 deputies. PP 37.65% and 148 deputies. 98.82% counted.


PSOE 42.64% and 164 deputies. PP 37.65% and 148 deputies. 99.06% counted. Make that 12 deputies to form a government.


PSOE 42.64% and 164 deputies. PP 37.65% and 148 deputies. 99.10% counted.

The Blogging of the President: 2004

In short, the body politic was ready to engage in an shift of basic sentiment, a 'realignment' as political scientists call it.

That is the political question - a referendum, not on combatting terrorism itself - millions marched against terrorism days ago, there is an absolutely unified sense in the Spanish press that such attacks must not be allowed to recur - but on the manner. Governments have fallen - often - for bungling a war.

And even more often for bungling the handling of the news. With a public that is overwhelmingly against the invasion of Iraq, Spain's news media was unusually agressive about pushing the government for proof - and the arrests of five suspects - none of whom had any ETA ties - on Friday seemed to doom the government's case.

But what has changed is the speed of the political response: in a matter of hours after being forced to admit that, despite the Government's protests that it was ETA, that A-Q was now the prime target of investigation - the government found itself with an electoral backlash that seemed far more organized than they had expected. The reaction was particularly swift in Madrid - and early exit polls show the PP and PSOE both taking 16 seats there, again, a significant shift from before, where the PP is associated with centralization, a policy popular in the capital city.

The best analysis I've seen yet of the Spanish result. The right is proclaiming this a case of cowardice, of surrender. When 70 million Spaniards marched, knowing that a mass demonstration was liable to be the target of another outrage, they were not showing cowardice or surrender. they were defying terror and not on any symbolic flight deck. Today they defied untruth and spoke truth to power, not just in Madrid but in London and Washington as well.


PSOE 42.64% and 164 deputies. PP 37.65% and 148 deputies. 99.44% counted.


PSOE 42.64% and 164 deputies. PP 37.65% and 148 deputies. 99.48% counted.


PSOE 42.64% and 164 deputies. PP 37.64% and 148 deputies. 99.56% counted.

There just aren't as many Spanish things to rename as French things. I suppose the US congress could strike the Spanish omelette from its menu but it's just not the same. Afterhtought - 'Hispanic' might need recycling.


PSOE 42.64% and 164 deputies. PP 37.65% and 148 deputies. 99.61% counted.


PSOE 42.64% and 164 deputies. PP 37.64% and 148 deputies. 99.76% counted.

  • PSOE +39
  • PP -35
  • CiU (Catalan centre-right) 10 -5
  • ERC (Catalan leftists) 8 +7
  • EAJ-PNV (Basque moderates) 7 deputies, -0
  • IU (left-socialist) 5 deputies -4
  • CC (Canarian centrists, would have entered a coalition with the PP) 3 -1
  • BNG (Galician socialists) 2 deputies -1
  • CHA (Aragonese regionalists) 1 deputy, -0
  • EA (Basque separatists) 1 deputy -0
  • Na-Bai, 1 deputy -0

All parties, except ERC, EAJ-PNV and the single-member groups, have lost deputies to the PSOE. This is a very broad victory.

That is confirmed when you look at the regions. The PSOE won a majority of deputies in 3 regions, half the deputies in another 7, and minorities in 8. The 8 regions where the PSOE has a minority include the tiny exclaves of Melilla and Ceuta with only 1 seat each.


PSOE 42.64% and 164 deputies. PP 37.64% and 148 deputies. 99.89% counted.

MaxSpeak, You Listen! | Ten million people who don't read Instapundit

Advice to the new government: if the head of state is to receive the U.S. ambassador, make sure he comes alone.

Why do I get an image of a Bush flunkey hissing in the presidential ear: 'Late is the hour in which this conjurer chooses to appear. Larkspell I name him. Ill guest and ill news!' if Zapatero ever visits the White House?

Typo '70 million Spaniards' is a typo. The correct figure is 10 million, a mere 25% of the nation.

No comments: