8 June 2004

Ben Oquist on the 'Magic 38'

Only half the Senate is elected at a normal Federal election. So eighteen Coalition Senators elected in 2001 will not face election this time around. As a result of their success in the previous election, the Coalition only needs to win 20 out of 40 senators up for re-election. They will only need to equal their 2001 performance - three Senate seats in each state and one in each territory - and they will reach the �Magic 38.�

To win three seats in any state requires only 42.2 percent of the vote after preferences are distributed. Even if the Coalition loses the election, a vote of that magnitude is more than likely. In fact they may well need a much lower primary vote than that. In each State, the last Senate seat is usually won by a candidate with much less than a full quota.

Normally the Coalition is assured of one Senator in each territory (where there are only 2 spots contested unlike the 6 in each State) but this time the Greens Kerrie Tucker is mounting a substantial challenge to the incumbent Liberal Senator in the ACT. Kerrie Tucker could very easily be the best chance to deny the Coalition their �Magic 38� seats.


The analysis is wrong in a couple of details. I am looking up the distribution of retiring Coalition senators by state. The Coalition does not have precisely 3 senators retiring in each state. The numbers are:


  • NSW ALP 3, Lib 2, AD 1
  • QLD ALP 2, Lib 2, AD 1, PHON 1
  • SA ALP 2, Lib 3, APA/AD 1
  • TAS ALP 2, Lib 2, Ind 2
  • VIC ALP 3, Lib 2, NP 1
  • WA ALP 2, Lib 3, AD 1


The real shift in the Senate at this election is likely to be Greens replacing Democrats and the return of the Meg Lees seat to the Democrats. The Greens have a chance at the Democrat seats in New South Wales and Western Australia. Labor has a reasonable chance of one of the independent seats in Tasmania and the PHPON seat in Queensland. I really cannot see the Coalition holding all its seats everywhere in the context of a Labor victory. The one thing I am sure will not change is the Territory senators who will remain Coalition 2, Labor 2.

Promoting an unlikely Green electoral victory in the ACT is not going to save Australia from the Greens' Magic 38. Moreover the Greens have a long and undistinguished record of cutting deals with the Coalition to secure 'maximal' Green objectives at the expense of broader social concerns. The classic examples are the Natural Heritage Trust, by which a tranche of Telstra was privatised in return for a boost to environmental spending that proved to be largely illusory, and their difficult relationship with the former minority Labor government in Tasmania.

The Oquist article also misunderstands how Senate elections, especially the last seat, are decided in each state. Distribution of preferences continues until 6 candidates have a quota (there is a technical exception but it's not relevant). The last senator elected needs precisely the same quota as the first senator.

Tip via Ari on the Web.

Hear me out: lamenting a silent language falling out of favour

Chevoy Brown will never forget her son's first word. At seven months, Jarrod reached out to her, opening and clenching his hand. He was saying 'light' in Auslan - the sign language his parents had been using constantly around him since he had been diagnosed profoundly deaf a month earlier.

Ms Brown rejected the offer of a cochlear implant, concerned that if it failed to boost Jarrod's hearing sufficiently for him to acquire spoken English, he would miss crucial stages in language-related brain development that occur in early childhood.

Today, Ms Brown says, her conversations with the gregarious seven-year-old are every bit as sophisticated as those she had with her hearing daughter at the same age.

But Jarrod's first language could die out within half a generation, according to new analysis - a casualty of changing patterns of deafness and a trend towards deaf children attending mainstream schools.


This is actually fairly sad. AusLan is a distinct language, not signed English. Its grammar is radically different. Languages with shrinking use communities do not have a stable future.

6 June 2004

The police always get their fish

POLICE who let a 9ft sturgeon slip through their fingers after its alleged illegal sale said yesterday they had found it again.


Scottish police must have unusually large fingers.

withdrawing from reality II

Remarks by the President at a Joint Press Availability with Australian Prime Minister John Howard:
Q Mr. Howard and yourself reaffirmed the commitment that Australia and the U.S. have to staying the course in Iraq. But you would be aware the alternative prime minister in Australia, Mark Latham, has promised to withdraw Australian troops from Iraq by Christmas --

PRESIDENT BUSH: Yes.

Q -- if he wins the election. What signal --

PRESIDENT BUSH: Yes, yes --

Q What signal would that send to the Iraqi people and the other members of the coalition?

PRESIDENT BUSH: I think that would be disastrous. It would be a disastrous decision for the leader of a great country like Australia to say that, we're pulling out. It would dispirit those who love freedom in Iraq. It would say that the Australian government doesn't see the hope of a free and democratic society leading to a peaceful world. It would embolden the enemy who believe that they can shake our will. See, they want to kill innocent life because they think that the Western world and the free world is weak; that when times get tough we will shirk our duty to those who long for freedom, and we'll leave. And I -- anyway.


Insiders - 06/06/2004: US alliance crucial to Aust: Downer:
BARRIE CASSIDY: Can you recall a time when an American president has been this critical of an Australian political leader?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, I think you have to understand the context of this. The Americans have about 33 now allies and coalition partners in Iraq with them. What happened in Spain was a disaster in the sense that it started to unravel the coalition in Iraq. Now at this time when the Iraqi interim government itself wants all of the coalition to remain, at a time when Iraq is moving towards full sovereignty, at a time when things are really starting to get somewhat back on track in Iraq, the last thing the Americans would want is some of that coalition to come unravelled. So for the Americans, there's Australian politics - I don't want to sound too modest about this - but I suspect Australian politics is a bit of a fringe issue. The central issue, is the issue of whether the coalition is going to hold together in Iraq at a time when things are really starting to come together or whether the coalition is going to disintegrate there.


Interview: John Howard
JOHN HOWARD: No. Because there is resolve by the Coalition. Let me say, Laurie, if they were to succeed it would not just give the terrorists a foothold in Iraq, it would deliver them an enormous international victory.

See, what people have got to understand is that whatever links there were between Saddam Hussein and terrorism thirteen or fourteen months ago, right now the terrorist are investing an enormous amount in Iraq, and they see victory in Iraq as a huge boost to their international cause, and that is why the position being taken by Mr Latham is so wrong, and that is why it is so important that the members of the Coalition should remain firm.


Bear in mind we are talking about two transport aircraft.

withdrawing from reality

Australia has 860 ADF personnel in Iraq.


  1. Australian national headquarters of - approximately 60 people
  2. a naval component embarked on the frigate HMAS Stuart, and command and logistic support elements - about 180 personnel
  3. an Air Force component with personnel deployed with two RAAF C130 Hercules transport aircraft - about 150
  4. about 160 personnel deployed with two RAAF P3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft
  5. an air traffic control detachment and support personnel at Baghdad - about 65 personnel
  6. a security detachment of protecting the Australian representative office and the Iraqi army training - approximately 90 personnel
  7. ADF personnel in the coalition military assistance training team to help train and develop the Iraqi coastal defence force and Iraqi army - approximately 65 personnel
  8. ADF personnel working in the coalition joint task force headquarters - approximately 25
    a logistics element supporting ADF units and Australian government agencies
  9. ADF personnel supporting the Iraq survey group - 12 people
  10. ADF personnel in specialist roles with the coalition provisional authority - a small number
  11. ADF personnel in liaison roles with coalition forces -a small number


Labor has said it will maintain the naval component, the security detachment, and the training group. The air traffic controllers are due home at the end of September. The HQ and the logistics element expand or contract with changes in the size of the other elements. Do the sums. The real difference between Labor and the Coalition is 2 Hercules air transports. If that is the make-or-break of the coalition military posture, things must be a lot grimmer than we are being told.

Rumsfeld: We would have stopped 9/11

The United States would have stopped 9/11 if intelligence had gotten inside information, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld says.

Rumsfeld told this to sailors and Marines aboard the USS Essex warship near Singapore Friday. Without directly assigning blame to the CIA, whose director, George Tenet, resigned on Thursday, Rumsfeld told a Marine who asked if Rumsfeld thought there had been enough intelligence information to prevent the attacks that the congressionally chartered 9/11 commission investigating the matter has not finished its work.

'We lacked the intelligence that might have prevented it,' Rumsfeld said, citing testimony given to the commission. 'That is to say, we did not have a source inside the group of people that had planned and executed those attacks. ... Had we had a source inside there, we undoubtedly would have been able to stop it. We did not. It would have been terrific if we had.'


Rumsfeld is fabricating history. The US had Moussaoui.

The 2004 Transit of Venus

On June 8 2004 an event will occur that no living person has seen - the planet Venus will pass between the Earth and the Sun, appearing as a black disc on the face of the Sun. This rare astronomical event is called a transit. The last transit of Venus took place in 1882 and only six have occurred since the invention of the telescope. This year's transit starts at 3:07 pm in Brisbane and Sydney, a minute later in Canberra, Melbourne and Hobart, 2:38 pm in Adelaide, 2:39 pm in Darwin and 1:10 pm in Perth. It will continue through till sunset in Australia although observers elsewhere such as Europe can observe the entire transit.

First observed in 1639 by the brilliant young English astronomer, Jeremiah Horrocks, subsequent observations provided the first example of international collaboration for a scientific program. The aim of the program was to observe the transit from widely separated locations so that astronomers could ultimately calculate an accurate value for the distance between the Earth and the Sun. In 1769 Lieutenant James Cook sailed on HMS Endeavour to Tahiti in the South Pacific to observe the transit. Following the successful observation of the event he opened sealed orders instructing him to sail westward and chart new lands, resulting in European contact with New Zealand and the east coast of Australia.


The ABC has a rundown on the controvery over Cook's success in measuring the 1769 transit.

Important safety notice
Do not confuse a transit of Venus with nipples of Venus! Attempts to lick the solar disk can result in severe facial and oral burns, as well as significant muscle pain in the tongue and throat.

The CSIRO is running a webcast.

5 June 2004

just a thought

I am fast reaching the conclusion that the Senate estimates hearings are themselves quite close to a violation of the Geneva Conventions. Sitting from 9 am to 11 pm with a couple of tea breaks and 2 meals for 4 days running.

Yikes...

Fafblog! the whole worlds only source for Fafblog.

What this country needs is steady leadership in times of change. Not intelligent leadership, not correct leadership, but steady leadership. Steadiness. Resolve. The resolve to keep doing what you are already doing, even if it is hopelessly boneheaded and wrong. In the face of such resolve, the terrorists will be cowed, fleeing into their terrorist hidey-holes, terrified by the tenacity of an opponent so fiercely determined to keep losing to them in the exact same way.

But if we fire incompetant officials, we are not using steady leadership. We are attempting to 'correct' our leadership. We are not staying the course. We are suggesting that there is some better course. Well Giblets for one is quite happy with this course! He knows it quite well and if it happens to veer into that ravine, he will be the first to inform you that his course is getting us to the bottom of the ravine swifter and surer than any other course out there! What's your problem? Are you a ravine-hater? Are you objectively anti-ravine?

Giblets would also like to remind everyone who is gloating over the dismissal of the strong, resolute, and strong Director Tenet that this dismissal is most likely being celebrated by our terrorist enemies. Now that they know that things like terrorist attacks and guerilla bombings and wildly inaccurate prewar intelligence can bring down one of our nation's top terror-fighters, they will now act with more fervor against America, in an attempt to control the selection of our appointed officials. The firing of an inept cabinet official is a firing for terror.


Everybody should read Fafblog. If officials in the Departments of Foreign Affairs, Defence and Attorney-General had read Fafblog they might have known about the abuses at Abu Ghraib early enough to stop the Man of Steel telling some spectacular (if politically advantageous) porkies to the parliament and the nation.

4 June 2004

ADF contribution to the Iraqi occupation

There are currently about 860 ADF members deployed for Operation Catalyst: Australian national headquarters of approximately 60 people, headed by the Australian National Commander Brigadier Hutchinson; a naval component with about 180 personnel embarked on the frigate HMAS Stuart, and command and logistic support elements; an Air Force component with about 150 personnel deployed with two RAAF C130 Hercules transport aircraft and about 160 personnel deployed with two RAAF P3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft; and an air traffic control detachment and support personnel at Baghdad international airport. That latter group totals about 65 personnel.

In addition, there is a security detachment of approximately 90 Army personnel protecting the Australian representative office in Baghdad and providing force protection for the Iraqi army training team. There are approximately 65 personnel to the coalition military assistance training team to help train and develop the Iraqi coastal defence force and Iraqi army. Approximately 25 personnel are working in the coalition joint task force headquarters. There is a logistics element located in Baghdad and Kuwait, providing support to ADF units and Australian government agencies. A 12-person team is supporting the work of the Iraq survey group. A small number of ADF personnel are working in specialist roles with the coalition provisional authority. A small number of ADF personnel are working in liaison roles with coalition forces.


From the Chief of Defence Force's opening statement to Day 1 of the Senate estimates hearing. Just remember (all together now) that Australia is not an occupying power. We excised ourselves.

As far as our responsibility for prisoners goes, on Day 1 Sen Hill told the committee we have an Arrangement for the Transfer of Prisoners of War, Civilian Internees, and Civilian Detainees between the Forces of the United States of America, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and Australia?. The effect of this is that all prisoners captured by the ADF in Iraq are actually captured by someone else, even, as Sen Evans acerbically suggested, by 'a passing American midshipman' when HMAS Stuart captured some prisoners at sea. Then on Day 3 we hear:

Senator Hill -- The convention and the obligations under the convention are as applied to the facts, not to any pre-existing agreement. As I understand it -- and the specialist lawyer will correct me -- you cannot agree away your responsibilities under the convention.


But there is better to come. On Day 4 we learn that there is no agreement, there was an exchange of letters between Australia's CDF and the US armed forces with respect to Afghanistan and that the Defence Department's own legal adviser says:

Dr French -- Indeed, as I mentioned yesterday, the overarching legal norm that is relevant with respect to the taking of prisoners of war in a period of hostilities is the third Geneva convention of 1949. In addition to that, with regard to Australia and the UK, the first additional protocol to the Geneva conventions, the additional protocol of 1977, is applicable and those are clearly the norms that do apply. In order to make quite clear the practical application of those norms where two of the parties -- that is, Australia and the UK -- had a slightly broader set of obligations than the third party -- that is, the US?in relation to the definition and categorisation of prisoners of war, it was appropriate to enter into a memorandum of understanding of less than treaty status to simply clarify the processes. But I must make it clear from the outset that the underpinning legal norms that define the obligations of the relevant countries are indeed the third Geneva convention of 1949 and the first additional protocol. The memorandum of understanding of 23 March 2003 per se did not create any new international legal obligations. It merely created a mechanism whereby those obligations could be implemented in a smooth manner.

Senator FAULKNER -- And it cannot override those obligations, can it?

Dr French -- Certainly not.

Senator FAULKNER -- And they cannot modify those obligations?

Dr French -- No, and the express wording of it does not intend that.

Senator BROWN -- You said yesterday, Dr French, that the custodial power is the power that actually takes the details of the prisoners who have been taken, whereas I was maintaining that it is actually the power that takes the prisoners. I have had the opportunity of looking at the Geneva conventions overnight, and I cannot find reference to the opinion that it is the documenting power. Can you point to that provision under the Geneva convention?


Let us summarise (before applying the Four Steps):

1. There is no agreement making the US the detaining power for Australian prisoners; 2. the agreement claimed by the government applied to Afghanistan, not Iraq; 3. the government's own legal advice is that the agreement (if it existed) could not excise Australia's obligations under the Third Geneva Convention.

Is there anything this government will not say to try and justify US conduct?

Poll predicts huge loss for Indonesia's President Megawati

Our Indonesia correspondent, Tim Palmer, reports the poll, conducted by the Japanese LSI agency across Indonesia, suggests the momentum behind Mr Yudhoyono, known as SBY, continues to grow.

The poll gives Mr Yudhoyono 49.8 per cent of the vote - close to the simple majority needed to sweep the election at the first round.

President Megawati trails by more than 30 per cent and now appears locked in a battle for second place with former general, Wiranto, of the Golkar party.

The poll shows both have about 14 per cent of the vote.


As of today there's one month to the first round voting. The trend to Yudhoyono is beginning to look unstoppable. On these figures Wiranto has gained only 4 points in the last week, while Yudhoyono has gained 8. Mega appears to be history.

The Serious Implications Of President Bush's Hiring A Personal Outside Counsel

It is possible that Bush is consulting Sharp only out of an excess of caution - despite the fact that he knows nothing of the leak, or of any possible coverup of the leak. But that's not likely.

On this subject, I spoke with an experienced former federal prosecutor who works in Washington, specializing in white collar criminal defense (but who does not know Sharp). That attorney told me that he is baffled by Bush's move - unless Bush has knowledge of the leak. 'It would not seem that the President needs to consult personal counsel, thereby preserving the attorney-client privilege, if he has no knowledge about the leak,' he told me.

What advice might Bush get from a private defense counsel? The lawyer I consulted opined that, 'If he does have knowledge about the leak and does not plan to disclose it, the only good legaladvice would be to take the Fifth, rather than lie. The political fallout is a separate issue.'

I raised the issue of whether the President might be able to invoke executive privilege as to this information. But the attorney I consulted - who is well versed in this area of law -- opined that 'Neither 'outing' Plame, nor covering for the perpetrators would seem to fall within the scope of any executive privilege that I am aware of.


I'll just go quietly back to reading the Senate estimates hearings now.

Bush Knew About Leak of CIA Operative's Name

Witnesses told a federal grand jury President George W. Bush knew about, and took no action to stop, the release of a covert CIA operative's name to a journalist in an attempt to discredit her husband, a critic of administration policy in Iraq.

Their damning testimony has prompted Bush to contact an outside lawyer for legal advice because evidence increasingly points to his involvement in the leak of covert CIA operative Valerie Plame's name to syndicated columnist Robert Novak.

The move suggests the president anticipates being questioned by prosecutors. Sources say grand jury witnesses have implicated the President and his top advisor, Karl Rove.


I love the smell of a high crime and misdemeanour in the morning. It smells like...

2 June 2004

O'Kane role attracts US legal teams

However, Senate committee evidence from Australian military officers in Canberra this week suggests that Major O'Kane handled the Red Cross complaints more systematically.

In a draft response to the ICRC, Major O'Kane acknowledged receiving two working papers on Red Cross visits to Abu Ghraib and Camp Cropper on November 12. Those visits, as the Red Cross later detailed, turned up evidence of abuses that violated the Geneva conventions.

Major O'Kane, according to his reports, then pursued the complaints by going to Abu Ghraib to discuss them with the key figures who are now under scrutiny in the scandal.

His visit occurred at about the time that numerous abuses were being inflicted at Abu Ghraib.

Major O'Kane's account noted: 'Attended the prison to address issues of mistreatment allegations and accuracy of contents of draft reply by US Army MP [military police] and MI [military intelligence].'

Yet Colonel Warren failed to mention Major O'Kane's meetings at Abu Ghraib to the US Senate Armed Services Committee.

A US military legal expert, Professor Scott Silliman, said the draft response to the Red Cross appeared to be cleared by more senior legal officers, possibly even back in the Pentagon, due to its careful wording on applying the Geneva conventions to Abu Ghraib detainees. 'Was that letter, before it was signed, sent to Washington for co-ordination?' Professor Silliman asked. 'It very well could have happened.'


Okay, if a letter went to Washington for signature the firewall between Abu Ghraib and the Pentagon would go up in smoke. I wonder also if the US legal teams are aware of the anoymous ADF colonel who, according to evidence before the Senate estimates committee yesterday:

There is a colonel. His role was as the CPA legal officer between May 2003 and November 2004 and from March 2004 to the present time. He visited Abu Ghraib prison on numerous occasions. He performed liaison functions with the ICRC.

the Man of Steel's rusty memory

Recall the prime minister's words last Thursday:

that I am advised that a report by the International Committee of the Red Cross in October of last year covered general concerns about detainee conditions and treatment.


By Monday that had morphed into a sustained claim by the Defence witnesses before the Senate estimates committee that there was no October report. How, in 3 days, did this document go from something the prime minister could quote with confidence to something that did not exist? Under continued questioning Defence admitted there were ICRC working papers but insisted the working papers were not a report. Someone read those papers and someone told the prime minister there was nor reference to torture. Defence now tells us the working papers do include reference to torture.

The prime minister tells us he was misinformed. This not the first time the prime minister has been misinformed. He was also misinformed about children overboard, the Manildra meeting, the pre-war intelligence, and a number of other things. There is a long history of prime ministerial misinformation and it's high time we got something other than the prime minister blaming the bureaucracy.

Strangely, each and every case of prime ministerial misinformation seems to favour the politics of the prime minister. I am no actuary. I'd love to know the odds of that happening by accident.

Howard's answer 1 June

I did indicate in the House yesterday - and I say this for the purposes of completeness of that answer - that the defence department had in its possession some documents described as working drafts or working papers. I have now been briefed on these papers. I am told by the defence department that the working papers of October-November last year do indeed cover advice previously given to me by the department - that is, that they are largely a discussion of prison conditions and possibilities for improvement or amelioration. However, I have now been told that the documents also canvassed allegations of unacceptable treatment of prisoners. I have been informed by the defence department that these documents were handed over by Major O'Kane to the department on 11 May - although one had been with the department since February - and that their content was considered systematically by the department for the first time over the last few days. They were then drawn to Senator Hill's attention over the weekend and then, as indicated, to my attention.

As the House will know, these matters are still before the Senate estimates committee. However, and this goes very directly to the point asked by the Leader of the Opposition, I have asked Senator Hill, when the Senate meets again - and he is the responsible minister, the Minister for Defence - to make a full statement to the Senate on this issue canvassing both the chronology and the substance of contact between ADF personnel, the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq and the ICRC and the extent and timing of communication of the details of such contact to officials of the government in Australia.

Mr Snowdon interjecting-

The SPEAKER -Order! The member for Lingiari is warned.

Mr HOWARD -It remains the case that all statements that I have made on this issue have been based on advice from the Department of Defence: all statements have been based on that advice. Most importantly of all, it should be emphasised again that at no stage did Australia hold prisoners in Iraq. Let me say that again: at no stage did Australia hold prisoners in Iraq. There has been no suggestion of any Australian involvement in prisoner abuse, and any implication to that effect should be totally rejected.


The prime minister's correction does no quite address the real question - Australia's responsibility (or lack of it) for the violation of human rights by the occupation. The following exchange on Monday in the Senate estimates hearing shows how silly the Howard argument is:

Senator FAULKNER�Is the letter that has been provided to you in the material from Major O�Kane his draft or is it effectively a copy of the letter that went in response to the ICRC?

Mr Carmody�It is his draft. It is an unsigned document. It was to be signed obviously by someone more senior.

Senator FAULKNER�Has it got a classification?

Mr Carmody�I do not know.

Senator FAULKNER�Is there any reason why that draft could not be provided to this committee?

Air Cdre S. Harvey�Apart from the obvious reason that it is a reply by an American official to an ICRC report�

Senator FAULKNER�No. It is an Australian draft for an American official.

Gen. Cosgrove�It cannot be determined an Australian draft. It was drafted by an Australian who was working for the Americans, so it is their property. If an American officer who was working in Australian headquarters writing information for use within the Australian government process decided he would give to the congress a copy of an Australian letter, I do not think we would be�

Senator CHRIS EVANS�That is an important point of clarification. I thought it was at coalition headquarters.

Gen. Cosgrove�Yes, but the detaining�

Senator CHRIS EVANS�Are we a member of the coalition? Gen. Cosgrove�This was the detaining power. The detaining power in this case was the United States.

Senator CHRIS EVANS�This is not the US headquarters; this is the coalition headquarters.

Gen. Cosgrove�Yes, but in an official sense it was the United States part of the coalition replying to the ICRC.

Senator FAULKNER�It was not the US military headquarters. This was done for someone in CJTF7, which is the Coalition Joint Task Force�correct?

Gen. Cosgrove�Yes.

Senator FAULKNER�Australia is part of the coalition, isn�t it?

Gen. Cosgrove�Yes.

Senator CHRIS EVANS�Who was the ICRC report addressed to�the coalition?

Senator Hill�The ICRC report was not addressed�the working papers were not addressed.

Senator CHRIS EVANS�As I understand it, they were addressed to the coalition.

Senator FAULKNER�Are you saying, General Cosgrove, that you would have to check with coalition partners before such a draft was made public?

Senator Hill�Can we take that one on notice? I think there are two issues. There is the one General Cosgrove is concerned about, which is the coalition relationships when officers are serving in line positions. The other issue is that the response obviously refers to working papers that the ICRC wishes to keep confidential. If we were to be permitted a reasonable time to consider those questions, I would appreciate it.


Essentially what Hill and Howard are saying is that we belong to the coalition for the purpose of invading Iraq but not for the purpose of occupying Iraq. That argument collapses when you consider that Australia continues to provide troops and officers to the CPA, to CJTF7 and elsewhere in the occupation. All this really means is that the Howard government should have negotiated a role for itself in governing the occupation instead of leaving everything to the discretion of the White House. I just do not see how the failure to establish an Australian political role in the CPA somehow ends our juridical duty to ensure human rights in Iraq while it remains under occupation.

If the Howard government had a splendid and enviable record of defending human rights and co-operating with monitoring by the UN and the Red Cross they might have a case. It is a matter of public record they do not. Indeed the government recently decided not to ratify the Torture Convention's optional protocol for reasons which are essentially just spin about Australian exceptionalism.

The Howard government is trying to carve out an exception to US exceptionalism by which Australia has no responsibility in Iraq except that which favours the political fortunes of one John Howard.

1 June 2004

a little light Senate hearing

Senator FAULKNER�[...]Can we get the person who designed and conducted the survey to come to the table, please?

Senator Hill�We are sending for him.

Senator FAULKNER�You are saying the relevant officer is not here?

Senator Hill�The relevant officer should be here, but we are having trouble finding him at the moment. We have sent out a search party.

Senator CHRIS EVANS�A lot of survey groups have difficulty finding stuff these days. It is a fairly
common problem.


Not earthshaking, but I think Sen Evans gets a good line.

Defence chiefs come clean on abuse

Major O'Kane made five visits to Abu Ghraib jail outside Baghdad between last August and January 4, some specifically to investigate concerns about abuse of prisoners. Six other Australian military lawyers were also revealed to have visited the jail, where the worst of the abuses by the US military occurred.

Major O'Kane received two Red Cross working papers in October and November, among other material, detailing allegations of abuse. These were passed on to Defence on May 11, but were not drawn to the attention of Senator Hill or the Prime Minister, resulting in them making false statements.

Defence officials in Canberra were told on December 4 that Major O'Kane went to Abu Ghraib 'in response to concerns raised by the [Red Cross] about conditions at the prison'.

Major O'Kane made more than 10 references to his work with the Red Cross to his Australian military superiors in Iraq in weekly reports but he never expressed concerns that the complaints were serious.

A Defence survey of its officers asked only if they were aware of abuses such as those shown in graphic images revealed by the media in late April. The survey was used to deny any knowledge of 'abuse or serious mistreatment' by Australians.

The Chief of the Defence Force, General Cosgrove, endorsed the removal of a photograph from the Defence website showing Major O'Kane outside Abu Ghraib soon after the abuse scandal went public.

Major O'Kane advised on interrogation techniques last August.

The Secretary to the Department of Defence, Ric Smith, and General Cosgrove were also shown to have made misleading statements about when Australians became aware of the abuses. They issued a statement on Friday night saying no Australians were aware of 'abuse or serious mistreatment' before January.

Senator Hill stressed that no Australians had taken part in torture and said the abuses that Major O'Kane dealt with were not as bad as those uncovered in April. But he admitted that the Red Cross complaints in October and November painted a 'grim picture' of detention practices.


I think I am beginning to understand why Sen Hill refused to produce Major O'Kane before the Senate committee. Hill's admissions also prove the prime minister's answer in the House last week untrue. The O'Kane affair is fast settling into the customary Man of Steel technique of governance.

1. Deny everything. 2. Admit it when it becomes unavoidable. 3. Insist you never got the papers. 4. Blame everything on the troops.

All we are really seeing now is an effort to build a firewall around O'Kane to preserve the plausibility of various government claims. The mendacity of those claims is no longer arguable.

Update
The transcript (large PDF) of the Senate Budget Estimates Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade is now online. More later.

Update 2
The Man of Steel has corrected his answer of last week. Text when available.

Update 3
The transcript (large PDF) of Day 2 the Senate Budget Estimates Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade is now online. More later.

Bremer threatens to veto Iraqis' choice of president

The US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council wants to appoint its current leader, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawar, who has spoken out against the failure of the occupation, but the US occupation governor, Paul Bremer, is insisting that they choose instead Adnan al-Pachachi, an 81-year-old former diplomat, who has said he believes American troops need to stay in Iraq until the security situation improves.

It emerged yesterday that Mr Bremer warned the council during talks on Sunday not to put the decision to the vote, saying that if it elected Sheikh Yawar, he would veto the decision. Further talks scheduled for yesterday were postponed at America's request until today, meaning that the deadline to name the interim government by the end of May was missed.

As well as Mr Bremer, a special envoy for President Bush, Robert Blackwill, and the United Nations envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, are attending the talks.

The sight of the Americans trying to bully the Governing Council into accepting their choice is threatening to destroy the interim government's credibility in the eyes of Iraqis. The US is already facing widespread accusations that the handover is cosmetic, and designed so that President Bush can claim the occupation is over ahead of the American presidential election in November.


Weren't we told that the US is there to create a democracy, not acquire a veto over the Iraqi presidency? Just as with the choice of Iyad Allawi, the US is imposing its own candidate to defend its own interests. The really bizarre thing is that these blatant diktats will destroy any shred of legitimacy the transitional government might have had. That in turn will exacerbate the security deficit.

It's a silly short-term fix that will ultimately make the occupation even more difficult to maintain. It makes a lie of the five steps in Bush's address a week ago. Only the Bush administration could come up with an Iraq 'solution' that exacerbates the twin security and legitimacy deficits at the same time.

31 May 2004

Nepal parties mull king's offer

Nepal's main political parties have begun talks after King Gyanendra asked them to suggest a candidate for the next prime minister.


Call it disgraceful, but the first time I saw this headline I read 'parties' as a verb and 'mull' as part of a compound noun.

Never mind the truth

Sadly, we are not about to find out. What will in fact happen on June 30 is that a former CIA operative, Iyad Allawi, who was picked by the US with little involvement from the United Nations, will head a puppet regime. This 'sovereign' country will have 138,000 US troops on its soil, not to mention soldiers from Britain and elsewhere, and its 'sovereign' leader will have no control over what they do. 'US forces remain under US command and will do what is necessary to protect themselves,' says Colin Powell.

Tony Blair for once disagreed. 'If there is a political decision as to whether you go into a place like Fallujah in a particular way, that has to be done with the consent of the Iraqi government and the final political control remains with the Iraqi government,' he said. But by the next day he was back in his box. 'We are both absolutely agreed that there should be full sovereignty transferred to the Iraqi people, and the multinational force should remain under American command,' he told the Commons.

In so doing he revealed two of the golden rules in this new era of politics by pronouncement. First, so long as you say things boldly and confidently, they do not have to make any sense. Second, whatever announcement you make last negates all announcements you've made before.

Indeed, Blair, of whom Doris Lessing, the novelist, once said: 'He believes in magic. That if you say a thing, it is true,' is the high priest of this dark art.


If you want a local example, then consider the government's refusal to make Major O''Kane available for questioning by the Senate on the content of the October Red Cross report. Apparently if a report falls in the forest and no-one hears, then there was never any report.

Labor to debate same-sex unions

Pressure is mounting on federal Labor before today's shadow cabinet meeting to reject the Federal Government's proposal to ban same-sex couples from marrying and adopting children from overseas.

The Opposition has indicated it will support the Government's moves, announced last week, to amend the Marriage Act to outlaw gay marriages, but will consider its position on adoption.

Opposition shadow attorney-general Nicola Roxon said that while Labor would not allow gay people to adopt children from overseas, she believed states should be responsible for adoption. She said the states had strict rules and most opted to not permit gay adoption.

'I think it is a bit inappropriate for the Prime Minister to now be trying to interfere in those decisions at the state and territory level, because at the end of the day it has to be the child's best interests that are considered,' Ms Roxon said.

'I don't think that a blanket ban at the federal level is the way to ensure that any child's best interests are always going to be taken account of.'

Yesterday, Greens Senator Kerry Nettle accused Labor of supporting Prime Minister John Howard and US President George Bush's 'anti-gay agenda'. 'It's the responsibility of all parliamentarians concerned with human rights and the scourge of homophobia to take a firm stand against the Government's attack on same-sex couples,' Senator Nettle said.

The Greens will next month introduce a private member's bill in the Senate to provide equal rights for same-sex couples.


Labor simply must not do this. You do not trade human rights for a temporary campaign advantage or put superannuation ahead of equality. The obvious answer is to refer the bill to a Senate committee and call on the government to at least justify (in detail) what it proposes.

Jailed - for showing dislike of US invaders

General Ryder, the army's provost marshal, reported that some Iraqis had been held for months for nothing more than expressing 'displeasure or ill will' towards the US occupying forces.

The report, drafted in November, said the process for deciding which arrested Iraqis posed security risks justifying imprisonment violated the Pentagon's own policies. It also said the conditions in which they were held sometimes violated the Geneva conventions.

General Ryder's report to Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez, the senior American commander in Iraq, was obtained by The New York Times.

Senior military officials also revealed that interrogation experts from the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay were sent to Iraq in the second half of last year and played a big role in training US military intelligence teams at Abu Ghraib.

Meanwhile, human rights groups say Iraqi women who were held at Abu Ghraib have complained of rape by US and Iraqi jailers. Brigadier-General Mark Kimmitt, chief military spokesman for the US-led coalition in Iraq, said the prisons department was 'unaware of any such reports at Abu Ghraib'.


If the contents of the Ryder report are quoted correctly, then most of the recent testimony by Messrs Rumsfeld and Co is now inoperative. The most terrible thing about Abu Ghraib, beyond the torture itself, is the casual way that several thousand people have been held without trial, review, or any real purpose except inertia. In the name of big-F freedom.

We Should Call Torture By Its Proper Name

The same issue of the Times contained an op-ed piece by Adam Hochschild that condemned both the misleading euphemisms of public authorities, and also the consistency of the forms of torture currently reported with those of older torture regimes. Hochschild�s only historical error was to identify sleep deprivation (currently euphemized as �sleep management�) as a technique, �Widely used in the Middle Ages on suspected witches by inquisitors.�(5) Witches were an Early Modern phenomenon, relatively little pursued by inquisitors, but rather by secular officials. Erroneous history does not strengthen modern cases � the tormentum insomniae was indeed a recognized form of judicial torture (the only kind known to medieval and early modern Europe), and it was clearly torture, as the technical term tormentum indicates; early modern legal officials had no need for euphemisms, since torture was for them a legal incident. But Hochschild and Sontag have finally gotten the word out to a wider public: what is happening is unquestionably torture, and it is being done by Americans and probably by their allies in Iraq and elsewhere. What Donald Rumsfeld refused to address as �the torture word� is there nonetheless, and it cannot be disguised by terms like �abuses.�

One reason (aside from the bad publicity) for organizations and states to avoid the word �torture� is that the term has acquired an enormous degree of opprobrium over the past two centuries. When the practice reentered modern political usage in the nineteenth century, as Rejali has pointed out, it did so by stealth, becoming, as William Blackstone long ago pointed out, �an engine of the state, not of law� � and still later an engine of ideology, instrumentalizing the state itself. Torture is never an isolated act by individuals; it is always systemic.


Somehow, it's not a surprise that one of the 'modern' tools used by the Bushlag archipelago turns out to have an ancient provenance in imposing the worship of violence. Blessed are the warmakers?

30 May 2004

torturing the truth about Abu Ghraib

According to the SMH timeline


  • OCTOBER 2003 International Committee of the Red Cross conducts visits to Abu Ghraib jail and Camp Cropper, a detention facility at Baghdad airport. Major O'Kane helps facilitate visits.
  • Red Cross delivers a report on October 30 on abuses at Camp Cropper, citing multiple breaches of Geneva convention, including keeping detainees in cells with no light for 23 hours a day.
  • NOVEMBER O'Kane sees Red Cross letter, dated November 12, 2003, to US commanders, complaining about prison abuses, enclosing the confidential work papers relating to visits to Camp Cropper and Abu Ghraib. Report says Red Cross delegates saw prisoners who were made to walk the corridors, handcuffed and naked, some with women's underwear on their head.
  • DECEMBER O'Kane helps draft US military response to Red Cross complaints. Letter sent to Red Cross on December 24, 2003. It says some prisoners protected by Geneva Convention.
  • JANUARY 2004 Photographic evidence of abuses inside Abu Ghraib begin circulating within US military. Authorities announce they are beginning investigation. O'Kane aware of photos but has not viewed them.


Major O'Kane is an ADF legal officer working for the CPA, as part of our non-participation in the occupation.

In question time on 27 May, the parliament heard

Mr RUDD (2.08 p.m.) �My question is to the Prime Minister. Prime Minister, when were Australian personnel in Iraq, either civilian or military, first made aware of allegations of prisoner abuse in Iraq?

Mr HOWARD, Prime Minister:

[...]I just want to say that that is a pretty contemptible and pathetic attempt by the Sydney Morning Herald to imply some kind of guilt by association. That is what that story is into, and can I say that some of the member for Griffith's questions go dangerously close to doing the same thing. Can I specifically go to the substance of this issue: that I am advised that a report by the International Committee of the Red Cross in October of last year covered general concerns about detainee conditions and treatment. Major O'Kane, as part of his work in the coalition headquarters in Iraq, prepared a draft response to that report. A separate report by the Red Cross, in February of this year - and once again this answer is based on the current advice of the defence department - raised allegations of ill treatment of detainees.[...]


The October report has not yet been released and probably will not be. The February report has been leaked and is available online. However, the February report states:

27. In mid October 2003, the ICRC visited persons deprived of their liberty undergoing interrogation by military intelligence officers in Unit 1A, the "Isolation section" of "Abu Ghraib" Correctional Facility. Most of these persons deprived of their liberty had been arrested in early October. During the visit, ICRC delegates directly witnessed and documented a variety of methods used to secure the cooperation of the persons deprived of their liberty with their interrogator. In particular they witnessed the practice of keeping persons deprived of their liberty completely naked in totally empty concrete cells and in total darkness, allegedly for several consecutive days. Upon witnessing such cases, the ICRC interrupted its visits and requested an explanation from the authorities. The military intelligence officer in charge of the interrogation explained that this practice was "part of the process". The process appeared to be a give-and-take policy whereby persons deprived of their liberty were "drip-fed" with new items (clothing, bedding, hygiene articles, lit cell, etc) in exchange for their "cooperation". The ICRC also visited other persons deprived of their liberty held in total darkness, others in dimly lit cells who had been allowed to dress following periods during which they had been held naked. Several had been given women's underwear to wear under their jumpsuit (men's underwear was not distributed), which they felt to be humiliating.

The ICRC documented other forms of ill-treatment, usually combined with those described above, including threats, insults, verbal violence, sleep deprivation caused by the playing of loud music or constant light in cells devoid of windows, tight handcuffing with flexi-cuffs causing lesions and wounds around the wrists. Punishment included being made to walk in the corridors handcuffed and naked, or with women's underwear on the head, or being handcuffed either dressed or naked to the bed bars or the cell door. Some persons deprived of their liberty presented physical marks and psychological symptoms, which were compatible with these allegations. The ICRC medical delegate examined persons deprived of their liberty presenting signs of concentration difficulties, memory problems, verbal expression difficulties, incoherent speech, acute anxiety reactions, abnormal behaviour and suicidal tendencies. These symptoms appeared to have been caused by the methods and duration of interrogation. One person held in isolation that the ICRC examined, was unresponsive to verbal and painful stimuli. His heart rate was 120 beats per minute and his respiratory rate 18 per minute. He was diagnosed as suffering from somatoform (mental) disorder, specifically a conversion disorder, most likely due to the ill-treatment he was subjected to during interrogation.


Taguba also documents (although the government cannot have known about this before the Taguba report was published) the illegal efforts of the Abu Ghraib authorities to conceal the worst abuses from the Red Cross delegation that wrote the October report. The October report is available to the government. The prime minister's answer is certainly inconsistent with those parts of the October report which are referred to in the February report. The prime minister has misled the parliament.

For a prime minister to mislead parliament or deny responsibility, especially this prime minister, is nothing new. For me the most disturbing part of the whole incident is that O'Kane participated in drafting a response to the October report

The Prime Minister, John Howard, confirmed on Thursday that Major O'Kane had 'prepared a draft response' to the complaints by the ICRC.

That letter of response said the US Government had decided a certain category of prisoner would not get the protections of the Geneva convention.

In making that decision, the US was relying on a new interpretation of one article in the conventions.

The letter reads in part, 'while the armed conflict continues and where 'absolute military security so requires', security internees will not obtain full GC [Geneva convention] protection as recognised in GCIV/5, although such protection will be afforded as soon as the security situation in Iraq allow it'.

GCIV/5 refers to article 5 of the fourth Geneva convention, a narrow loophole that qualifies the protection of individuals considered an imminent security threat in their own country.

New York human rights lawyer Scott Horton, who analysed the letter, said its interpretation of the Geneva convention was 'completely outrageous'.


It is really quite hard to believe that O'Kane would not have made the government aware that the occupation was taking a view of the Geneva Conventions radically different to anything Australia has ever adopted. I guess it's a small footnote that Rumsfeld testified on 7 May that:

The Geneva Conventions apply to all of the individuals there in one way or another.�They apply to the prisoners of war, and they are written out and they're instructed and the people in the Army train them to that and the people in the Central Command have the responsibility of seeing that, in fact, their conduct is consistent with the Geneva Conventions.�


Evidently he knew as little of CENTCOM's operations as our prime minister.

Update
Newsweek reports:

But military sources acknowledge that an increasing body of evidence indicates his command has not been forthright about when it learned of the abuses or what it did�and failed to do�about them. The Red Cross first warned Joint Task Force-7 of the kind of abuses seen in the prison photos last November, fully two months before Sanchez launched an investigation. The general says he didn't find out about the abuses until January. But two military sources say his deputy, Maj. Gen. Walter Wodjakowski, was present at a meeting in late November to discuss a response to the Red Cross. Also at the meeting was Col. Mark Warren, Sanchez's top legal adviser. In mid-May Warren denied in reply to a NEWSWEEK question that his office had drafted the command's response, which brushed off the Red Cross allegations. But Warren later acknowledged under oath to the Senate Armed Services Committee that his JAG team had drafted the command's response.


That also destroys the prime minister's 27 May claim that the October report contianed nothing about actual abuses.

27 May 2004

Cosmos at full throttle

Anyone reading their results might be excused for feeling a bit special. The team found that 4 percent of the universe is made of ordinary matter. Another 21 percent consists of so-called dark matter, inferred from its gravitational effects on matter. The remaining 75 percent consists of dark energy, which exerts a form of pressure that makes it act like gravity thrown into reverse. These figures are consistent with results reported last year from satellite measurements of the big bang's afterglow - the cosmic microwave background.

If the quantity of dark energy is constant, astronomers say, the universe will continue to expand at an increasing rate. In about 20 billion years or so, only about 100 galaxies might be visible from Earth. Think of it as the 'big lonely.' If dark energy were to change with time, it could relax to let gravity once again dominate, prompting the universe to collapse in the 'big crunch.' Or if the pace speeds up, it could lead to the 'big rip,' in which the fabric of space-time stretches so rapidly that even atoms get torn apart.

Based on the team's observations, dark energy is holding steady and 'behaves much like the cosmological constant in Einstein's theories' about the evolution of the universe, says Steve Allen, an astronomer at Cambridge University in England and the team leader.

Essentially, this means that the amount of energy per volume of space remains constant. If this observation holds up under more rigorous programs, it would substantially narrow the range of explanations for what dark energy really is.


I bet you thought I couldn't blog on dark energy without implying a causal relationship between dark energy and the rule of the Man of Steel and the Great Dubya. Well, you were wrong. So there.

Full Moon Exerts No Pull On Frequency Of Epileptic Seizures

Werewolves notwithstanding, the full moon does not influence the frequency of epileptic seizures, reports a University of South Florida study.

'Contrary to the myth, epileptic seizures are not more common during a full moon,' said Selim Benbadis, MD, associate professor of neurology and neurosurgery at the USF College of Medicine. 'In fact, we found the number of epileptic seizures was lowest during the full moon and highest in the moon's last quarter.'

The study, to be published in an upcoming issue of the journal Epilepsy & Behavior, is posted in the journal's online version.

Dr. Benbadis said he decided to investigate the possible relationship between phases of the moon and the frequency of seizures after repeatedly hearing patients claim that their seizures were triggered or worsened by the full moon. 'Even some health care professionals believe this, but it's never been scientifically tested,' he said.


Every ambo (and a lot of cops) I've ever spoken with has insisted the assault and accident rates soar when the full moon rises, but strabgely enough, I'd never heard of the full moon and seizures. Perhaps I was too busy howling and growing fur and fangs.

Akbar expects three-way fight and run-off poll

But yesterday, Mr Akbar spoke positively about Mr Wiranto's chances, in a move that suggests the Golkar chief was keeping all options open, including cutting a deal with his rival that could see him being offered the post of senior presidential adviser.

Mr Akbar estimated that Golkar's presidential contender could garner about 36.5 million votes, or 32 per cent of the total, drawing on his party base as well as those of his running mate, Mr Solahuddin Wahid.

He is the younger brother of former president Abdurrahman Wahid, who still has enormous influence in the country's largest Muslim organisation, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), and the affiliated Nation Awakening Party (PKB).

Mr Akbar noted that besides NU and PKB, Mr Wiranto could also get support from smaller parties such as the Indonesian Nahdlatul Ummah Party and the Nationhood Democratic Party.

But his two other rivals are running close. President Megawati, he noted, already had in hand about 21 million votes, based on her party's performance in the April parliamentary polls. Her No 2, NU chairman Hasyim Muzadi, would add votes from his supporters in East Java.

Mr Akbar said Mr Bambang, known popularly as SBY, and partner Jusuf Kalla were also doing well, attracting support in the cities as well as the heartlands.

'SBY's popularity will help him in obtaining many swing votes from other political parties,' he said.


The electoral commission has now excluded Gus Dur from the election and he's filed an appeal to the Constitutional Court. If he is unsuccessful his party, the PKB, which is particularly strong in East Java, will throw its support to Wiranto. Wiranto's running mate is Gus Solah, Gus Dur's younger brother. I suspect Mega's vote may actually fall between now and the 5 July election. Nothing suggests the performance of her government or her popularity will improve over the next month. That would make Wiranto and Yodhoyono the candidates for the September runoff.

The issue of Wiranto's indictment by East Timor must be getting some traction because Wiranto is seeking a reconciliation meeting with East Timor's President Xanana Gusm�o. East Timor has delayed despatch of the warrant against Wiranto to Interpol.

Behind the Scenes, US Tightens Grip on Iraq's Future

In March, for instance, Mr. Bremer issued a lengthy edict consolidating control of all Iraqi troops and security forces under the Ministry of Defense and its head, Ali Allawi. But buried in the document is a one-paragraph 'emergency' decree ceding 'operational control' of all Iraqi forces to senior U.S. military commanders in Iraq. Iraqis will be able to organize the army, make officer appointments, set up new-officer and special-forces courses, and try to develop doctrines and policies to govern the forces. But they can't actually order their forces into, or out of, combat -- that power will rest solely with U.S. commanders.

U.S. Maj. Gen. David Petraeus, who participated in the original Iraq invasion, will soon assume responsibility for training the new forces. With American commanders retaining the power to order the forces into combat, Mr. Allawi or his successor will be left with only 'administrative control' of the forces.

Meanwhile, the media and telecom commission Mr. Bremer created will be able to collect media licensing fees, regulate television and telephone companies, shut down news agencies, extract written apologies from newspapers and seize publishing and broadcast equipment.

One of the new watchdog agencies, the Office of the Inspector General, will have appointees inside every Iraqi ministry charged with combating malfeasance and fraud. Appointed to five-year terms, the inspectors will be allowed to subpoena witnesses and documents, perform forensic audits and issue annual reports.

The other watchdog, the Board of Supreme Audit, will oversee a battery of other inspectors with wide-ranging authority to review government contracts and investigate any agency that uses public money. Mr. Bremer will appoint the board president and his two deputies. They can't be removed without a two-thirds vote of Iraq's parliament, which isn't slated to come into existence until sometime next year.

Few of the positions have been filled so far, but officials at the CPA and the Governing Council say they expect to name the new officials within weeks. The advisers inside the ministries are likely to be almost exclusively American, while the inspectors and members of the various new commissions will all be Iraqi. Individual ministers can dismiss their advisers, but many U.S. officials assume they'll be reluctant to do so for fear of antagonizing the U.S.


This is just another proof of how incomplete the transfer of complete sovereignty is going to be. These tactics are authorised by by Articles 48 and 49 of the transitional administrative diktat. It's only a guess, but I wonder how much of UN Envoy Brahimi's difficulties in constructing a government are due to the CPA making these appointments over his head. The defence minister, for instance, has a fixed 5-year term and cannot be removed by the prime minister or the presidency council.

Without basic changes, the interim constitution is simply unworkable. What for instance, is going to happen 3 or 4 years down the track when a US adviser tries to overrule a minister on a fundamental issue? Are the Iraqi government or people really going to accept a set of 5-year training wheels laid down by a subcommittee of the CPA?

Update
Paul McGeogh's opinion piece is worth reading as well.

Tip via DailyKOS

Iraq abuses: Army knew months ago

An Australian military officer stationed in Baghdad was aware of allegations of prisoner abuse as early as last October and passed details to Australian officers in regular reports, the Herald has learnt.

The revelation undercuts repeated Federal Government and Defence Department assurances that they knew nothing of the abuses, especially because Major George O'Kane, a legal officer, liaised directly with the Red Cross from the time it first complained of abuses.

Major O'Kane worked at US military headquarters with the office of the US staff judge advocate, Colonel Marc Warren, the senior legal officer in Iraq, for six months to February.

He was in the post when the photographs of abuse in Abu Ghraib jail first circulated within US military headquarters in Baghdad, triggering the secret investigation by General Antonio Taguba and quiet suspension of the jail's chief, Brigadier General Janis Karpinski.

Major O'Kane knew of the photographs but did not see them, sources said. He had also been aware of the central thrust of General Taguba's report in February outlining 'sadistic, blatant and wanton criminal abuses' at Abu Ghraib.

As well, Major O'Kane was involved in drafting a letter responding to the concerns of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) which argued that some prisoners were not subject to the full protection of the Geneva conventions.


Ordinary Australians are going to be outraged by this extraordinary and reprehensible circumstance. The government's previous denials are consistent with the way it's behaved since the war ended.

Last October Senator Hill, the defence minister, denied that Brig Gen Meekin was more than 'peripherally' involved with the Iraq Survey Group. In April the US awarded Meekin the Legion of Merit for his contribution to the Iraq Survey Group.

The Man of Steel is long on record for saying we had withdrawn the ADF from Iraq, until the opposition called for withdrawal when the Man of Steel exercised his tensile strength to say he had not and would not withdraw.

The government has consistently denied that we are an occupying power despite the presence of Australian personnel in the CPA and elsewhere in Iraq. Now the government has denied all knowledge of the Abu Ghraib abuses (Downer actually briefly denied the abuses themselves) and we discover an Australian officer knew of them. Shortly we will learn that the prime minister's staff forgot to inform him. Or perhaps that the report was thrown in the water.

26 May 2004

US Emphasizes Intent to Transfer Full Power to Iraqis - With Limits

A day after President Bush declared in a major speech that Iraqis would exercise authority over their own affairs, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said in London that Iraq's interim government would have the right to veto specific military operations by the U.S.-led coalition, a view American officials immediately disputed. And French President Jacques Chirac told Bush in a telephone conversation that France wanted any new U.N. Security Council resolution to spell out clearly that the Iraqis would have a say over U.S.-led military operations.

The dispute over how much authority the new Iraqi government would wield came at a crucial diplomatic and political moment for the White House. While the U.S. is negotiating a Security Council resolution seen as critical for bestowing international legitimacy on the interim Iraqi administration, U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi is struggling to name a government.


Why would Tony Blair make a statement if he knew the White House would contradict him? Was this an effort to try and force Bush's hand? Or is this another of this administration's flip-flops that happened to catch Blair firmly between the eyes?

In any case the confusion could (in theory) easily be resolved by including specific language in the new UN resolution. Sadly that seems not to be the way that diplomacy works. Evidently the White House wants to hold on to Article 59 no matter what.

That will destroy any legitimacy the transitional government might claim, but exemplifies the 'What, me worry?' approach the White House has taken to this entire war.

Whose edifice is this? Spain peels back the layers of its identity

Many non-Muslim Cordobans, however, support the Mezquita proposal. 'Anyone should be able to pray there,' says Jos� Raval, a high school teacher. 'The Mezquita has been named a heritage site for humanity, and aren't Arabs part of humanity?'

While fear of terrorism complicates Spain's efforts to integrate Muslims, many here still hope that a more generous public spirit - such as existed in the age of 'convivencia,' when Christians, Jews, and Muslims lived in relative harmony across the Iberian Peninsula - will prevail, and that a new, more inclusive, national identity will flourish.

Earlier this month, the bishop of Santiago de Compostela removed from that city's cathedral a 14th-century statue of Saint James 'the Moorslayer,' citing a wish to avoid 'offending the sensibilities of some visitors.'

It is a gesture that Isabel Romero, who directs the Halal Institute outside C�rdoba, can appreciate. Spaniards have a habit of thinking of Muslim Spain as something foreign, she says. 'We don't recognize that the Muslims were from here, that they were Andalusians too, that they are our roots.'

And she sees the proposal to open the Mezquita to Muslim worship as a step in the right direction. 'What remains from Al Andalus are not just the Mezquita's stones, but our culture itself,' says Ms. Romero. 'We have to reconcile ourselves with our history.'


There could be a quid pro quo at the other end of the Mediterranean where many Byzantine churches were rededicated as mosques, just as the Spanish reconquistadores rededicated mosques as churches. Allowing Christians and Muslims to pray in both sets of buildings would be a small step, but a good step.

PM handover to Costello worries voters

The leadership issue is set to hurt the Federal Government in the coming election, with a new Herald Poll finding almost half of all voters believe John Howard will not serve his full term if re-elected and have not yet warmed to Peter Costello.

The poll reveals that 47 per cent of voters believe the Prime Minister will retire during the next term and that 41 per cent would be less likely to vote for the Coalition at the election late this year if they thought that Mr Costello, as is widely expected, would be his successor.

This 'anti-Costello' effect includes more than one in five current Coalition supporters - although 36 per cent of Greens supporters say they would be more inclined to vote for the Coalition if Mr Costello was certain to take over after the election.


These figures are terrible news for both Costello and Howard. Costello is probably not, contrary to my prediction, organising a challenge to the Man of Steel. Even if he was, these figures would be deeply unhelpful to any challenge. In the same way, these figures mean Howard will face more and more questions about whether he will (or can) serve another term that would have him turn 69 before the 2007 election.

At the same time, Paul Keating had similar negatives in 1992 and went on to win the 1993 general election.

IISS annual survey

The IISS has released its annual survey. The full document is not available. The director's introduction is disturbing.

To summarise roughly:


  • The Iraq intervention increased the terrorist threat
  • North Korea took advantage of the Iraq intervention to advance its nuclear program
  • The Libya success (achieved by British diplomacy) is a welcome success.
  • The Iraq intervention and the war on terror have 'has sapped the US of much of its diplomatic energies with the result that there has been underinvestment in the Middle East peace process'.


The director ends by saying:

Let me add this thought by way of general conclusion. The British diplomat Harold Nicolson once noted that �although you cannot acquire prestige without power, yet you cannot retain prestige without reputation.� This is why reputation is so central to power. He went on to say that �a prestige which contains a high percentage of reputation is able to withstand a loss of power - whereas even a temporary decline in power will destroy a prestige that is devoid of reputation.�

The US today is finding it difficult to balance the exercise of its power with the retention of its prestige. Achieving that balance is essential to maintaining its capacity both to do good in the world, and create international security. The present US administration is becoming acutely aware of the fact that reputation, prestige and power can easily be squandered through mismanaged interventions and peacekeeping operations. The US is realising the awful truth that the first law of peacekeeping is the same as the first law of forensics: �every contact leaves a trace.� Unfortunately, too many bad traces have been left recently, and many good ones will be needed for the US to recover its reputation, its prestige and therefore effective power.


The grimmest part of this picture is that the US seems unaware of how much reputation it is losing in the Muslim world. Yesterday's speech by George Bush does little to address Muslim concerns and indeed does nothing but repeat details of a plan that was already known without detailing whether the transition is still to be governed by the TAL. In particular there are problems with Article 59, which mandates US command over Iraq's own forces and Articles 48 and 49 which continue CPA appointments, agencies and policies until such time as the Transitional National Assembly is elected and even then any assembly action is subject to an absolute veto by any of the three members of the presidency council. It's notable the both the UN and the Shi'a hierarchy are resisting endorsing the TAL .

The Bush administration has prduced a drastic failure in security and legitimacy in Iraq. It is hard to see how more of the same will change that.

25 May 2004

Man of Steel to meet Terminator

MAN of steel John Howard is to come face to face with the Terminator in Los Angeles to lobby support for an Australian gas deal.

The prime minister today said he would meet the Governor of California, movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, as part of his trip to the United States, Britain and France.

Mr Howard will have talks with US President George W Bush at the White House, as well as meetings with key congressional leaders, to seek support for the Australia-US free trade agreement.

Mr Bush, who described the prime minister as a man of steel for his support for the war on Iraq, is set to talk to Mr Howard about the handover of power in Iraq on June 30.


Some headlines just have to be blogged.

attending to ADHD

The Daily Telegraph reports:

Medication for ADHD contains amphetamines which are on the banned list for footballers.


And today's letters page in Sydney Morning Heraldincludes:

If what is being said about Willie Mason is true and not just a poor attempt to excuse his behaviour, then as a young adult suffering from ADHD, I can sympathise.

While I can regulate my behaviour fairly well on a day-to-day basis, if alcohol is thrown into the mix, all bets are off. While an average person may do a few silly things after a few too many drinks, it is almost guaranteed that a ADHD sufferer will do something he/she regrets.

The simple answer would be to avoid alcohol, but at an age where practically all socialisation includes a few drinks, this is much easier said than done.


It's frankly insane that the guy is not on medication when he was diagnosed in February. I sympathise with the letter-writer because my experience is almost the same.

Latham winning the war

Labor would win in a landslide if an election were held now, as more Australians than ever regard the Iraq war as unjustified, a new Herald Poll has found.

A week before John Howard heads to the US for meetings with President George Bush and the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, on Iraq, the poll showed a strong majority - 63 per cent - thought the war was not justified, compared with 51 per cent in September last year.

Only 31 per cent now think the war was justified, compared with 43 per cent last year.

The poll also revealed a big gap in electoral support opening up between the Government and Labor, which now leads the Coalition by 56 per cent (up three points) to 44 per cent (down three) in two party preferred terms.

This suggests that Labor would have won an election held last Saturday with a swing of about 7 per cent.

The poll shows that although voters were impressed by the budget they are deserting the Coalition, with Mr Howard's approval rating falling to its lowest level since August 2001, immediately before the Tampa crisis.

By contrast, the Opposition Leader, Mark Latham, is enjoying record support, according to the poll, conducted last weekend by ACNielsen.


The Man of Steel may be starting to rust. 7 August must be off the table as an election date, but I suspect Howard intends to go to the country before the presidential election on 2 November. He will not want to fight a difficult election on the back of a possible Bush defeat because his foreign policy is essentially built on his personal relationship with the Great and Powerful Dubya. I'd say some time towards the end of the period between 7 August and 30 October.

Howard has a history of putting off the unpalatable and this election is not going to be easy at all. National security is now the only issue he controls, so we can expect a lot of antiterrorist legislation designed to be as difficult as possible for the opposition to accept. The collapse in support for the Iraq war must be very, very bad news, almost as bad as the budget going phut.

It's going to be an interesting 5 months, especially if Latham follows Whitlam in 1972 and starts to make the date an issue in itself.

23 May 2004

The Defense of 'Command Influence'

Secretary Rumsfeld has hinted that some form of compensation may be paid to those who suffered the abuses. But money will not redeem either the ethical lapses or the systemic failures that precluded appreciation of the seriousness of what had occurred among the most senior elected and appointed officials and uniformed officers.

In his 1963 encyclical �Pacem in Terris� (Peace on Earth), Pope John XIII sic wrote that �every fundamental human right draws its indestructible moral force from the natural law, which in granting it imposes a corresponding obligation. Those, therefore, who claim their own rights, yet altogether forget or neglect to carry out their respective duties, are people who build with one hand and destroy with the other.�

That this is how countries in the Muslim world and beyond regard the U.S. is not surprising. One can only hope that the White House and the Pentagon have taken the message to heart.


If the White House and the Pentagon understood Pacem in terris they would not have invaded Iraq.

NB Pacem in terris was issued by John XXIII not John XIII. Just for the record there was an antipope who reigned as John XXIII in the fifteenth century and the name was not used again until Cardinal Roncalli's election in 1958.

From Friend to Foe

Asked by Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan whether the U.S. was 'duped by a con man' into going to war, Air Force General Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, responded, 'I think that remains to be seen. Probably. But I just don't know.'


Some things run beyond comment. I might argue about who the conman was, though.

Chalabi Said to Deceive the West

Ahmad Chalabi, the onetime White House favorite who has been implicated in an alleged Iranian spy operation, sent Iraqi defectors to at least eight Western spy services before the war in an apparent effort to dupe them about Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's illicit weapons programs, current and former U.S. intelligence officials said.

U.S. investigators are seeking to determine whether the effort -- which one U.S. official likened to an attempt to 'game the system' -- was secretly supported by Iran's intelligence service to help persuade the Bush administration to oust the regime in Baghdad, Tehran's longtime enemy.

Officials said other evidence indicated that Chalabi's intelligence chief had furnished Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security with highly classified information on U.S. troop movements, top-secret communications, plans of the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority and other closely guarded material on U.S. operations in Iraq.

The U.S. investigation into the suspected spy operation was a key reason behind Thursday's raids on Chalabi's Baghdad house and the offices of his Iraqi National Congress. Several INC members were accused of kidnapping, robbery and corruption.


It's an open question if Chalabi really was acting on behalf of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security. It's not an open question that the Chalabi material has proved grossly inadequate. Shopping untrue stuff to agency after agency until you found a set of bozos stupid enough, or ingenuous enough, to take you on face value must have been frustrating. That the said bozos sat in the Pentagon and the White House with an intelligence doctrine making uninformed preconception equal to factual data must have felt like a fairy tale.

How to hand over sovereignty without handing over sovereignty

The Observer is reporting that Iraqis lose right to sue troops over war crimes:

British and American troops are to be granted immunity from prosecution in Iraq after the crucial 30 June handover, undermining claims that the new Iraqi government will have 'full sovereignty' over the state.

Despite widespread ill-feeling about the abuse of prisoners by American forces and allegations of mistreatment by British troops, coalition forces will be protected from any legal action.

They will only be subject to the domestic law of their home countries. Military sources have told The Observer that the question of immunity was central to obtaining military agreement on a new United Nations resolution on Iraq to be published by the middle of next month.

The new resolution will lift the arms embargo against Iraq, allowing the country to rearm its 80,000-strong army in readiness for taking over the nation's security once coalition forces finally leave.

'The legal situation in Iraq will be very difficult after 30 June, with some confusion over where jurisdiction lies,' said one Whitehall official. 'We wanted to ensure that British troops maintained the immunity they already have under Order 17.'


Human Rights Watch has a good analysis of this legal legerdemain. The Bush administration has always been a staunch advocate of tort reform. Who knew tort reform includes torture reform?

One of the more pathetic sights of recent times has been US senators asking if the ITG will command coalition forces. Don't they read anything anymore? The Transitional Administrative Law's Article 59 makes quite clear they do not.

The not-sovereignty the Iraqi transitional government will exercise does not include military command, finances or apparently the civil rights of Iraqis. The bill of rights Bush makes such a song and dance about will not apply to forces under Bush's command and control. After all, we can hardly have Iraqi judges ordering the release of prisoners from Abu Ghraib can we?

the Man of Steel and the Great Chain of Being

The Great Chain of Being is an ancient myth that survived well into the renaissance. In these rational and scientific times, it is of course long abandoned. No-one now believes that the ritual actions of a king have any effect in the real world.

Except the Man of Steel:

If we lose heart, if we abandon our friends, if we choose to give the wrong signal to the terrorists, that will not only make the world a less safe place but also damage the reputation of this country around the world.

We must remember it is in times of adversity that the value of friendship is most keenly felt and it is in times of adversity and challenge that that friendship is tested.

Our presence in Iraq is read as an important and valued demonstration of Australia�s support for her allies � and in this regard not only the United States and the United Kingdom, who continue to carry the major share of the burden. It is often forgotten that close friends and partners of Australia in the Asia Pacific region, such as Japan, Korea and the Philippines, are valued members of the coalition.

Our alliance with the United States was, unapologetically, a factor in the decision to join the coalition. And it should be a factor in any consideration of our continued participation in the coalition.

For Australia, there is nothing comparable to be found in any other relationship � nothing more relevant indeed to the challenges of the contemporary world.


The issue in Iraq is not whether we lose heart. It is whether the war and the occupation have been so badly managed that neither can now be rescued. We do not need to send signals in Iraq. We need to start addressing reality. No amount of keeping heart or sending signals is going to create security or legitimacy in Iraq. At least Britain is slowly beginning to think about what is happening on the ground in Iraq instead of what music the courtiers are playing in Washington.

The Scotsman reports:

The first cracks in Britain's coalition with the United States over the occupation of Iraq were exposed last night by a leaked government memo which revealed deep misgivings about America's 'heavy-handed' tactics in the war-torn country.

The damning document, produced by a team working for Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, disclosed private reservations within Tony Blair's administration about Washington's approach to the post-war occupation.

The detailed memo, sent to senior ministers and top officials last week as a 'progress report' on the occupation, stressed the need for the UK government to press the Americans to soften their approach and avoid aggressive responses 'which would jeopardise our objectives'.

It also talked of 'the need to redouble our efforts to ensure a sensitive and sensible US approach to military operations'.

The revelations shatter the government's long-held insistence that there are no differences between Downing Street and the White House over Iraq.

The six-page memo suggests that the US tactics have particularly damaged support among ordinary Iraqis and stirred up much of the unrest which has exploded into violence in recent months.

And, in a startling admission, it also declares that the 'scandal' over the abuse of Iraqi prisoners in Coalition-run jails has damaged the 'moral authority' of Britain and the US as they struggle to justify their decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein's dictatorial regime.

'We should not underestimate the present difficulties,' the document states, in a section headed 'Problems'. 'Heavy-handed US military tactics in Fallujah and Najaf some weeks ago have fuelled both Sunni and Shi'ite opposition to the Coalition and lost us much public support inside Iraq.'

The memo, reported in the Sunday Times, adds: 'The scandal of the treatment of detainees at Abu Ghraib [prison] has sapped the moral authority of the Coalition, inside Iraq and internationally.'


The Bush administration is getting beyond the usual criticisms of government. It is getting silly. No matter what happens we get told that everything in Iraq is wonderful except for some minor problems and that as time passes it gets even more wonderful. We are told that everything in the Bushlag archipelago is wonderful except for a few bad apples.

The worst recent example was the bizarre speech by the Man of Steel. There are others. General Sanchez signed a memo on 12 October 2003 authorising something like the same abuses at Abu Ghraib that have destroyed any shreds of legitimacy left to coalition rule in Iraq. According to the Washington Post:

The Oct. 12, 2003, memorandum signed by Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez called for intelligence officials at the prison to work more closely with the military police guarding the detainees to "manipulate an internee's emotions and weaknesses."

This memo and the deliberations that preceded it were completely shrouded from public view at the time, but now lie at the heart of the scandal that erupted last month over the abuses at Abu Ghraib. Under congressional prodding, the administration has provided a fuller chronology of the events leading up to its approval.

Congressional critics have alleged that language in the memo helped set the stage for the abuses and were part of a Washington-inspired effort to squeeze more information from Iraqis rounded up by the U.S. military and sent to interrogation sessions at the high-security wing of the Abu Ghraib prison, using methods that some consider illegal.


The actual text has not surfaced yet, but it surely will. Two things we need to know. Was the memo restricted to Abu Ghraib? If it wasn't then why should we believe that Abu Ghraib is the only place these absues ahve happened. Was the memo approved by the Pentagon itself? If it was then Rumsfeld's testimony before Congress becomes (I think the phrase was Nixon's) inoperative. Sanchez has already testified that he did no authorise the abuses. He told Congress on 19 May 2004.

SANCHEZ:�In this regard, I must be very circumspect in what I say.�We must let our military justice process work.�It is a process in which the American people can and should have confidence, and one in which I take great pride.

I cannot say anything that might compromise the fairness or integrity of the process or in any way suggest a result in a particular case.�I have taken an oath to support and defend the Constitution of the United States, and that includes ensuring that all persons receive a fair trial and, if found guilty, appropriate punishment.

This respect for the rule of law has been a guiding principle for my command.�There is no doubt that the law of war, including the Geneva Conventions, apply to our operations in Iraq.�This includes interrogations.�

I have reinforced this point by way of orders and command policies.�In September and October of 2003, and in May of 2004, I issued interrogation policies that reiterated the application of the Geneva Conventions and required that all interrogations be conducted in a lawful and humane manner, with command oversight.

In October 2003, I issued a memorandum for all coalition forces personnel that was entitled "Proper Treatment of Iraqi People During Combat Operations."�I reissued this memorandum on the 16th of January after learning about the events that had taken place at Abu Ghraib.�

On the 4th of March of 2004, I issued my policy memorandum number 18, entitled "Proper Conduct During Combat Operations."�This document, which I also reissued in April, emphasized the need to treat all Iraqis with dignity and respect.�This policy memorandum also contained a summary for distribution down to the individual soldier level that provided clear guidance and mandated training on the following points.

Follow the law of war and the rules of engagement.

Treat all persons with humanity, dignity and respect.

Use judgment and discretion in detaining civilians.

Respect private property.

And treat journalists with dignity and respect.

With regards to Abu Ghraib, as soon as I learned of the reported abuses, I ensured that a criminal investigation had been initiated and requested my superior appoint an investigating officer to conduct a separate administration investigation under Army Regulation 15-6 into this matter.


I guess that's 'inoperative' testimony as well. All we're really seeing is a mountain of bullshit about language. We have generals arguing that they did not issue orders that they issued, or that orders they issued did not mean what they mean. We have defence secretaries arguing that rape, stress positions, nudity, threats, dogs are only abuse and not torture as if that made everything all right. We have presidents and prime ministers muttering idiocy about sending signals and losing hearts when they should actually be dealing with what's happening on the ground rather than with that they'd like to believe.

Has a single empirical proposition advanced by the war party proved accurate from the cakewalk to the few bad apples? When are they going to join the rest of us in the real world?

'None of this happened and even if it did we didn't get the memo' is fast becoming as ritual an answer as anything a medieval king ever said.