blogging Abu Ghraib

Today's SMH reported:

The head of the US military has admitted he was unaware of a damning military report written two months ago that outlined the systematic abuse of Iraqi prisoners by American soldiers and intelligence officers at the Abu Ghraib prison outside Baghdad.

The report detailed evidence of sexual humiliation, including the sodomising of a prisoner, and beatings that may have led to the murder of at least two detainees.

In a round of US television interviews designed to contain the deepening scandal which has inflamed Arab public opinion, General Richard Myers, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, insisted that only 'a handful' of US officers had taken part in the abuse, and they were facing legal action.

General Myers insisted that an army investigation had not found wide abuse. 'There is no, no evidence of systematic abuse in this system at all. We want intelligence information but we have to stay inside international norms and international law. We do that.'

But he admitted he had not read the report by General Antonio Taguba that points to the systematic abuse of prisoners after US Army intelligence officers, CIA agents and private contractors had asked soldier guards to help set up conditions for interrogations.

Abu Ghraib itself is almost impossible to blog. The Fafblog quote I posted probably comes closest. The bureaucratic manoeuvres to try evade responsibility are easier to analyse.

Part of the Bush administrations governing style is to argue that the president can do anything. I am not exaggerating. Appearing before the US Supreme Court, they've argued that neither the US Congress nor the courts can restrain presidential action in the War on Terror. Abu Ghraib is the end result.

The US army has a months old report detailing what happened at Abu Ghraib and elsewhere. This is the Taguba report that Myers tells us he has not read. Among other things General Taguba reported:

Breaking chemical lights and pouring the phosphoric liquid on detainees; pouring cold water on naked detainees; beating detainees with a broom handle and a chair; threatening male detainees with rape; allowing a military police guard to stitch the wound of a detainee who was injured after being slammed against the wall in his cell; sodomizing a detainee with a chemical light and perhaps a broom stick, and using military working dogs to frighten and intimidate detainees with threats of attack, and in one instance actually biting a detainee

Now General Myers might not have read this report immediately, but CBS delayed broadcasting the photos by 2 weeks at the Pentagon's own request. Did no-one think, during that delay, to dig out the Taguba report? Did no-one ask why the hell are we doing this and try to stop it?

Bush has created a culture, evidently, where anything goes, and where no-one is responsible as they long they don't read the memo. Traditional checks and balances were invented for a reason. One of them is to ensure that stunning incompetence does not lead to abuses like Abu Ghraib.

Update

Christopher Hitchens has hit the press, or least the web, with the following:

This is only the rehearsal for one's revulsion. One of two things must necessarily be true. Either these goons were acting on someone's authority, in which case there is a layer of mid- to high-level people who think that they are not bound by the laws and codes and standing orders. Or they were acting on their own authority, in which case they are the equivalent of mutineers, deserters, or traitors in the field. This is why one asks wistfully if there is no provision in the procedures of military justice for them to be taken out and shot."

For once I agree with his analysis. As far as his shock at the 'mid- to high-level people', I suggest he read the government submissions in some WoT court cases.

Aircraft carrier - going (really) cheap

Further proof of the growing influence of auction site EBAY in the global economy is the recent listing of an aircraft carrier for sale. Given there are less than 20 serving aircraft carriers in the world, and the shipbrokers representing the vessel appear to operating from somewhere in mainland China, this is indeed testimony to the power of EBay. Oh, and if you fancy an aircraft carrier with sleeping facilities for 1300 people, read on ...

The world gets more and more like Snowcrash every day.

It's a worry.

Kiwihenge

A New Zealand astronomy group is bulding its own henge at Wairarapa on the North Island. They are not building a replica. Stonehenge Aotearoa will be a new structure with its own alignments to the southern sky.

Grow-your-own to replace false teeth

The choice of growing a new tooth is likely to appeal to patients. 'Anyone who has lost teeth will tell you that, given the chance, they would rather have their own teeth than false ones,' said Prof Sharpe. The average Briton over 50 has lost 12 teeth from a set of 32.

The procedure is fairly simple. Doctors take stem cells from the patient. These are unique in their ability to form any of the tissues that make up the body. By carefully nurturing the stem cells in a laboratory, scientists can nudge the cells down a path that will make them grow into a tooth. After a couple of weeks, the ball of cells, known as a bud, is ready to be implanted. Tests reveal what type of tooth - for example, a molar or an incisor - the bud will form.

Using a local anaesthetic, the tooth bud is inserted through a small incision into the gum. Within months, the cells will have matured into a fully-formed tooth, fused to the jawbone. As the tooth grows, it releases chemicals that encourage nerves and blood vessels to link up with it.

Tests have shown the technique to work in mice, where new teeth took weeks to grow. 'There's no reason why it shouldn't work in humans, the principles are the same,' said Prof Sharpe.

News you can get your teeth into!

The Medium Lobster strikes again!

- The activities that occurred at Abu Ghuraib prison are not to be compared to those of Saddam Hussein's rape rooms and torture chambers. After all, those were rape rooms and torture chambers. These were merely rooms in which rape occurred, and chambers in which individuals were tortured.

- In war, atrocities will happen, as dew on the grass in the morning, or flower blossoms in the spring. The dew gathers. The buds open. The atrocities bloom. It is all according to the mysterious, ever-unfolding cycle of life - a cycle too vast and complex for mere mortals to comprehend.

- These were isolated incidents, and the behavior of these prison guards should in no way reflect upon the military superiors who endorsed and promoted such behavior. This is because atrocities are supervenient on subordinates, but not on command structures. Those with greater learning will understand.

Fafblog just gets better and better.

Bambang widens lead over Mega in survey

Soft-spoken former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has widened his lead over President Megawati Sukarnoputri ahead of Indonesia's July presidential election, a public opinion poll found yesterday.

Mr Bambang received 30.6 per cent of respondents' backing compared with Ms Megawati's 14.6 per cent, according to the survey by The International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES).

Mr Bambang, Ms Megawati's former security minister, is continuing 'his rapid ascent as the favourite', IFES said.

His lead shot up from 18.4 per cent recorded in IFES's last survey conducted between March 21 and 28. The earlier poll gave Ms Megawati 11.6 per cent.

IFES conducted its latest survey after the April 5 legislative elections but before official presidential candidates had become known.

The Golkar party which claimed victory in the general election has named another retired general, Wiranto, as its candidate for Indonesia's first direct presidential ballot on July 5.

This is good news. Golkar seems to have backed the wrong horse, although presumably the Golkar endorsement will lift Wiranto above his current standing of 2.2%. Gus Dur is in severe difficulties because the KPU has issued a regulation excluding blind candidates. I plan on following the IFES standings through the campaign over the next month.

The news from Ambon is worse. The SMH reports:

Indonesia's military yesterday denied allegations that soldiers had taken part in an attack on a church in the eastern city of Ambon, which has been racked by five days of Muslim-Christian violence.

Witnesses said uniformed infantrymen fired into the air before ordering seven families living close to the city's Protestant church to leave their houses early on Wednesday. Minutes later, unidentified men torched their homes and the church.

The claims - the latest in a string involving the poorly trained military - have angered Christians in the Maluku islands capital, where 34 people have been killed since Sunday.

TNI has a long tradition of inciting regional violence at the behest of individuals within the Jakarta political elite. Wiranto's history in East Timor is the worst example. The recent violence may be part of such a campaign - create a security crisis and then offer yourself as the man on horseback.

Scottish NHS has best punchline to lightbulb gag

It is one of the most commonly asked questions in the history of humour, a comedic puzzle that has spawned hundreds of variations.

But it appears we may finally have an answer to that most persistent of posers: how many people does it take to change a lightbulb?

In the case of the Scottish NHS, the answer is seven. Troubled insurance giant Standard Life manages the same job with three. BBC licence fee payers may be interested to know the corporation typically needs five people to change a bulb.

Joking aside, the quest to find out how many people large organisations need to keep the lights on started with a serious purpose.

When a fluorescent strip light in the office used by Dr Graham Ellis, a clinical research fellow in geriatric medicine at Glasgow Royal Infirmary, began to flicker, he decided to conduct an experiment in NHS efficiency.

He said: 'I wanted to find out exactly how many people it takes to change a lightbulb in a large inner-city teaching hospital. In the past I might just have wandered down to 'Bill in supplies' and got a bulb and put it up myself or have him do it. That would have been two people, including myself. This was a lot more complex.

This feels like a meme with legs. I see parliamentary questions about the number of people required to change a lighbulb in the Defence Materiel Organisation...

Internet craze

Via Tim Blair I learn the lastest craze is:

1. Grab the nearest book.
   
2. Open the book to page 23.
   
3. Find the fifth sentence.
   
4. Post the text of the sentence in your journal along with these instructions.
   

I got:

Many of the akritai belonged to the separated Armenian church, and almost all of them willingly gave protection to heretics; while Moslem heretics could always find protection with Moslem frontier lords.

So there...

WTO rules American cotton subsidy illegal

Brazil has won a landmark victory at the World Trade Organisation that could spell the beginning of the end of rich countries' subsidy payments to their farmers.

The WTO, based in Geneva, has ruled that US$1.5bn (AU$2.5bn) of annual subsidies given by the United States government to its 25,000 cotton farmers are mostly illegal.

The provisional ruling is confidential, but trade sources said pubic confirmation would be available as soon as next month and could start a domino effect whereby much of the %uFFFD300bn in subsidies lavished on the rich world's farmers might tumble.

'This could be the first domino,' one said.

The ruling is the first time a developing country has won such a decision from the WTO when arguing against one of the big trade powers.

The European Union is also under pressure from countries such as Brazil, Australia and Thailand over the massive subsidies it makes available to sugar beet growers.

The agricultural subsidies attracted by farms in the richer nations have been one of the main sticking points in the latest round of world trade talks, known as the Doha round, which collapsed spectacularly in Mexico last year.

In ways, this could be the most important international event this year. The massive agricultural subsidies paid by much of the developed world (Australia, for once, is a notable exception) are perhaps the single greatest contributor to world poverty.

The mess in Iraq will pass in time. Even if the US re-elects the Boy Emperor he will only have 4 more years. But some of these agricultural subsidies and protections are generations old.

Iraq's Transition: On a Knife Edge

The history of post-Saddam Iraq is one of successive, short-lived attempts by the U.S. to mould a political reality to its liking. With each false start and failed plan, realistic options for a successful and stable political transition have become narrower and less attractive. Getting it right this time is urgent and vital. There may not be many, or any, opportunities left.

In undertaking his mission, Brahimi inherited several stark and in some ways conflicting political constraints: the U.S. commitment to 'transfer sovereignty' to an unspecified Iraqi body by 30 June 2004; the unrepresentative character of the existing Iraqi institution, the Interim Governing Council; the absence for the foreseeable future of a credible and reliable Iraqi security force and therefore the need for a continued U.S.-led force; strong objection by the most influential Shiite representative, Ayatollah Sistani, to endowing any non-elected government with genuine authority; and the practical impossibility of holding national, democratic elections before January 2005.

Added together, these factors lead to two clear conclusions: first, fundamental change is needed soon if the growing vacuum separating the occupation's governing institutions from the Iraqi people is to be narrowed; and secondly, whatever happens on 30 June will at best involve a delegation of something far less than full sovereign powers to a body falling far short of being representative.

Someone in the International Crisis Group has been channeling Galadriel. More later when I've read it.

Yours, in the hope Britain will think again on the direction we are heading

The conduct of the war in Iraq has made it clear that there was no effective plan for the post-Saddam settlement. All those with experience of the area predicted that the occupation of Iraq by the coalition forces would meet serious and stubborn resistance, as has proved to be the case. To describe the resistance as led by terrorists, fanatics and foreigners is neither convincing nor helpful. Policy must take account of the nature and history of Iraq, the most complex country in the region. However much Iraqis may yearn for a democratic society, the belief that one could now be created by the coalition is naive.

The military actions of the coalition forces must be guided by political objectives and by the requirements of the Iraq theatre itself, not by criteria remote from them. It is not good enough to say the use of force is a matter for local commanders. Heavy weapons unsuited to the task in hand, inflammatory language, the confrontations in Najaf and Falluja, all these have built up rather than isolated the opposition. The Iraqis killed by coalition forces probably total 10,000-15,000 (it is a disgrace that the coalition forces appear to have no estimate), and the number killed in the last month in Falluja alone is apparently several hundred, including many civilian men, women and children.

We share your view that we have an interest in working as closely as possible with the US on both these related issues, and in exerting real influence as a loyal ally. We believe the need for such influence is a matter of the highest urgency. If that is unacceptable or unwelcome, there is no case for supporting policies which are doomed to failure.

One of the war party's resounding themes before the war was to invoke the mass graves of the period when Saddam was acting as a US proxy and the US was providing diplomatic cover. Halabjais one example.

Iraq has newer mass graves than that. The ones in Falluja is only a few weeks old.

Dogs On The Scent Of Better Behaviour

Dogs in animal shelters can be helped to behave better by wafting special scents throughout their kennels and corridors, animal behaviour experts from the University of Edinburgh have found. The research may lead to more dogs being rehomed after they have been placed in shelters for a variety of reasons including excessive barking and other bad behaviour.

I am as much of a dog junkie as anyone I know. But the question must and will be asked. Exactly which smells have this happy effect?

Are we going to see little electric gizmos that cheer up your dog by filling the house with the pleasing scent of whatever unspeakable thing they'd really rather be out rolling in? Are there dog owners in the world silly enough to buy these devices? Have you watched much late-night TV recently?

White House Says Iraq Sovereignty Could Be Limited

These diplomats, and some American officials, said that if the American military command ordered a siege of an Iraqi city, for example, and there was no language calling for an Iraqi government to participate in the decision, the government might not be able to survive protests that could follow.

The diplomats added that it might be unrealistic to expect the new Iraqi government not to demand the right to change Iraqi laws put in place by the American occupation under L. Paul Bremer III, including provisions limiting the influence of Islamic religious law.

Democratic and Republican senators appeared frustrated on Thursday that so few details were known at this late stage in the transition process, and several senators focused on the question of who would be in charge of Iraq's security.

In Harry Turtledove's Balance alternate history, the planet gets invaded in 1944 by an alien race with deeply conservative ideas. The alien language has no word for a government independent of their empire so they end up talking about not-empires like the US and Britain. The aliens also go to some lengths to demonstrate to the leadership of the Third Reich that their racial theories are unfounded in fact and get tremendously confused when this produces no change in the Reich's racial policies. But I digress.

The Bush administration is shifting its Iraq policy from fantasy to science fiction. They have invented not-sovereignty. It is laid out in some detail in the transitional adminsitrative diktat.

The areas of sovereignty excised from the not-sovereignty to be handed to Iraq are security, finance, anything covered by a CPA proclamation, and anything covered by a UN resolution. Strangely, because the not-sovereign ITG cannot make laws it will be incpable of changing CPA laws and appointees (yeah, I mean Chalabi).

This top-secret and unsuspected plan was carefully laid out in the CPA's interim constitution a month ago. Did no-one read it?

Which strange quiz did you take?

Take the quiz: "Which American City Are You?"

Los Angeles
You are the epitome of duality. You'll deal with all the strife to bask in all the glamour.

Sovereignty for Iraqi interim govt 'will be limited'

The new Iraqi interim government scheduled to take control on July 1 will have only 'limited sovereignty' over the country and no authority over United States and coalition military forces already there.

Senior State and Defence officials told this to Congress in testimony this week before the Senate and the House Armed Services Committees.

Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman said the US will operate under the transitional law approved by the Iraqi Governing Council and a resolution approved by the United Nations Security Council last October.

Both those provisions give control of the country's security to US military commanders.

Senior State and Defence officials told this to Congress in testimony this week before the Senate and the House Armed Services Committees.

Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman said the US will operate under the transitional law approved by the Iraqi Governing Council and a resolution approved by the United Nations Security Council last October.

Both those provisions give control of the country's security to US military commanders.

Well, doh. The text of the Iraqi transitional diktat has been available since it was signed on 8 march. Article 59 provides:

(A) The permanent constitution shall contain guarantees to ensure that the Iraqi Armed Forces are never again used to terrorize or oppress the people of Iraq.

(B) Consistent with Iraq�s status as a sovereign state, and with its desire to join other nations in helping to maintain peace and security and fight terrorism during the transitional period, the Iraqi Armed Forces will be a principal partner in the multi-national force operating in Iraq under unified command pursuant to the provisions of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1511 (2003) and any subsequent relevant resolutions. This arrangement shall last until the ratification of a permanent constitution and the election of a new government pursuant to that new constitution.

(C) Upon its assumption of authority, and consistent with Iraq�s status as a sovereign state, the elected Iraqi Transitional Government shall have the authority to conclude binding international agreements regarding the activities of the multi-national force operating in Iraq under unified command pursuant to the terms of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1511 (2003), and any subsequent relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions. Nothing in this Law shall affect rights and obligations under these agreements, or under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1511 (2003), and any subsequent relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions, which will govern the multi-national force�s activities pending the entry into force of these agreements.

Why was the limitation of sovereignty not reported on 8 March? Why are there 304 stories from a shocked press announcing to an equally shocked world what has been plain as mud since 8 March as though it was a new discovery?

Human Rights Watch | Indonesia: Indicted General Unfit for Presidential Bid

A leading Indonesian political party, Golkar, should reconsider its decision to select a former general indicted for crimes against humanity as its candidate for presidential elections in July, Human Rights Watch said today.

Golkar should be embarrassed to select someone who has been indicted for crimes against humanity as its presidential candidate. If Golkar has really reformed itself after the massive rights violations of the Suharto years, it should be distancing itself from its dark past instead of embracing it.

The former general, Wiranto, was chief of Indonesia's armed forces in 1999 when the Indonesian army and military-backed militias carried out numerous atrocities against East Timorese after they voted for independence. In February 2003, he was indicted for crimes against humanity by the U.N.-sponsored Special Panels for Serious Crimes of the Dili District Court and named as a chief suspect by the Indonesian Human Rights Commission.

'Golkar should be embarrassed to select someone who has been indicted for crimes against humanity as its presidential candidate,' said Brad Adams, executive director of the Asia Division at Human Rights Watch. 'If Golkar has really reformed itself after the massive rights violations of the Suharto years, it should be distancing itself from its dark past instead of embracing it.''

Human Rights Watch said that the party's decision to nominate former General Wiranto calls into question Golkar's commitment to reform after the dictatorial reign of its former leader, President Suharto. The nomination also raises the possibility that Indonesia will elect a president who will be unable to travel to other countries.

The charges against Wiranto are so serious that the United States has put Wiranto and others accused of crimes in East Timor on a visa watch list that could bar them from entering the country. Human Rights Watch called on other countries to enact similar bans to send the message to Golkar and Indonesian voters that electing someone allegedly responsible for such serious crimes is unacceptable to the international community.

'Countries with a commitment to the rule of law and justice should send a message that Wiranto's election could make Indonesia a pariah state that they would have difficulty dealing with,' said Adams.

On February 24, 2003, the U.N. sponsored East Timor Serious Crimes Unit filed an indictment for crimes against humanity against Wiranto and three other Indonesian generals, three colonels and the former governor of East Timor. The charges include murder, arson, destruction of property and forced relocation. ?
?
The indictment covers crimes committed before and after East Timor's referendum on independence in August 1999, and the Serious Crimes Unit has submitted 1,500 pages of evidence in support. All of the suspects are believed to be in Indonesia.

However, Indonesia's current foreign minister, Hasan Wirajuda, said the government would 'simply ignore' the indictments by the U.N.-sponsored tribunal. In addition, the Indonesian Attorney General's office has ignored the recommendations of its own national human rights commission that General Wiranto should be put on trial, allowing Wiranto to remain free from criminal prosecution.

Human rights are universal. Witanto should be facing trial, not a presidential election. The Australian government should be making its attitude on this fundamental issue clear. Even in pragamtic terms, we know that the military solution is failing in Aceh and beginning to fail in West Papua. Does the Australian government really want to face a repeat of Wiranto's East Timor policy in Aceh and West Papua?

Book reveals Howard's early commitment to overthrow of Saddam

As far back as September 2002, John Howard assured George Bush he would support him in his efforts to remove Saddam Hussein, but told him they needed to get a UN Security Council resolution, Bob Woodward reports in his new book, Plan of Attack.

'I'm with you. We need a resolution,' the Prime Minister said to the President, according to an interview Bush gave Woodward. At the time, the British leader, Tony Blair, had committed sending troops to Iraq and gave him the same assurance - 'I'm with you'.

But Howard, Blair and Spain's then prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, all wanted Bush to obtain a resolution from the UN authorising the war.

Well. We all suspected that the invention of pre-deployment was a way of covering a decision that had already been made. This also means the Howard has misled parliament on a number of occasions but no doubt we'll see a little Newspeak to dismiss this problem.

Back to Iraq 3.0 | Meet the new boss

Well, it was bound to happen. President George W. Bush today named John Negroponte the new ambassador to Iraq.

Chris Allbrighton has the goods on Bush's ambassador-designate to Iraq. Naturally the Iraqis will have absolutely no knowledge of Negroponte's human rights record in Latin America. None at all. Really. Truly...

Update

The Disinfopedia also gives Negroponte a serve.

Perhaps the White House believes there's no problem in Iraq that a few death squads couldn't solve.

Edward I loses his 'throne' after Scots outcry

Buckingham Palace has backed down over a claim that Edward I - known as 'the Hammer of the Scots' - was king of Scotland.

The Palace's website listed the Scottish crown as among his titles in a section entitled 'Monarch of the Month', but Royal staff have changed the entry after historians expressed outrage.

The section now says that the arch-enemy of William Wallace 'regarded himself as sovereign lord of the kings of Scotland' and no longer includes king of Scotland among his list of titles, which include king of England, Wales and the Isle of Man. However, Professor Ted Cowan, a leading Scottish historian who last week criticised the 'Anglo- centric' description of Edward, described the change to the website as 'feeble'.

A spokeswoman for the Palace said: 'We decided to put that he regarded himself as sovereign lord, which is open to dispute but probably more accurately reflects the position.

'I think the rest of it is a matter for interpretation. History is always a matter of interpretation.'

But Prof Cowan, of Glasgow University, was unimpressed. 'I think it's feeble but it's quite good to know the Palace can admit there was an error and that it has done something to remedy the situation,' he said. 'To say Edward regarded himself as sovereign lord, it implies a sense of legitimacy: if a king believes something, it's more valid than what a 'rebel' like Wallace believes.

'The only word I can say to describe it is 'spin'. And anyone writing about history has to remember history has a relevance to the present.'

I checked. The palace website is also sadly misleading in not mentioning that Mel Gibson fathered the heirs of Edward II.

prime sonnets

About a week ago, Boing Boing linked to a midi version of the Fibonacci sequence with the comment that it sounds a lot like Philip Glass. This is not the point in my blogging career where I confess to once spending a lot of time giggling for no obvious reason in the Valhalla while watching Koyanisqaatsi. But I digress.

Fibonacci was more than just a dry humourless mathematician. He belonged to the most brilliant court in Europe, that of the Holy Roman Emperor Frederick II the Stupor Mundi, and may have contributed his dry-as-dust mathematical knowledge to Giacomo da Lentini's invention of the sonnet.

The midi piece does sound a lot like Philip Glass.

New team to challenge Megawati

Opinion polls show the former security minister is the only candidate whose support is growing. A poll published on Friday by Indonesian non-government group Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated said Mr Yudhoyono, with 44 per cent support, was more than twice as popular as President Megawati Soekarnoputri with 21 per cent.

Mrs Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle was routed in the legislative elections on April 5, losing almost half its supporters, many of whom voted for Mr Yudhoyono in an apparent protest at the level of corruption in the big parties.

And in a question about who would be the best vice-presidential candidate, Mr Kalla came top with 21 per cent while Hamzah Haz, the current Vice-President and possible running mate for Mrs Megawati, received 5 per cent support.

Sukardi Rinakit from the survey group said the results showed a Yudhoyono/Kalla team was preferred.

Mr Kalla, a business tycoon from South Sulawesi province, is regarded by many observers as Golkar's most popular candidate. His decision to pull out of the convention and join Mr Yudhoyono seems certain to split the Golkar vote in the July poll.

Polling is new in Indonesia (it as not really needed under Suharto) and it's accuracy is not always brilliant. If Yudhoyono is already at 44% he needs to pick up only another 6 points before 5 July. Kalla's supporters will contribute to that.

Golkar's legislative vote of 20% (even without any Kalla defectors) is not enough to overtake Megawati in the race to be the other candidate to go into the second round if one is necessary. By the looks of it the list of presidenciables is fast shrinking to Yudhoyono and Megawati.

Bantuising Gaza

The old regime in South Africa devoted huge amounts of paper and ink to setting up a magic formula that would convert the white minority into a paper majority. The 1983 tricameral constitution created white, Cape Coloured and Indian legislative chambers and then gave the white president overriding powers if the three houses disagreed on anything. The black majority were assigned to highly fictive Bantustans recognised by no government in the world except South Africa, Israel and Taiwan. South Africa then claimed it no longer had any responsibility for what happened in the Bantustans. All were swept away when democracy came.

According to Haaretz:

The disengagement plan's states "there will no longer be a basis for the claim that the Gaza Strip is occupied territory (Article 2.A.3). Thus Israel releases itself from legal-political, moral, and economic responsibility for the Strip and transforms it into an independent entity. However the plan removes only the responsibility, together with its few citizens and its many soldiers. Other than that, control of the Gaza Strip stays in its hands. Israel will continue to control all international passages (Article 2.A.1, and Article 12). The "independent" entity will not be allowed to invite international forces to exercise control unless Israel - which will no longer be responsible for 1.3 million Gazans - agrees. Although Israel has ensured that the Palestinians have no say in the disengagement plan, it demands that Gaza be demilitarized, stating that the presence of weapons "is not in accordance with the existing agreements" (3.A.2).

Basic services (water, electricity, fuel, etc.) will remain the same. The perpetuation of these arrangements contradicts the divestment of responsibility stated by the disengagement plan. But it points out that Israel cannot permit a humanitarian disaster.

The most interesting article in the plan concerns the evacuation of the northern West Bank enclave, to allow "transportation contiguity" (2.B.4) for Palestinians. This term is also taken from the South African precedent. The white South Africans, too, thought this would allow them to continue ruling on the ground, building bridges and tunnels for the natives. Only Israel and Taiwan had ties with the homelands. Foment there deteriorated into a series of rebellions, and a decade ago the homelands became part of united South Africa, governed by a black majority.

Haaretz also has the text of the Sharon plan. Like the 1983 constitution, and indeed the Iraqi interim constitution the Sharon plan retains more than it gives away and is a device to absolve Israel of responsibility while retaining the realities of power.

Israel's official borders may correspond roughly to the 1967 Green Line. The limits of their actual authority include the West Bank and Gaza. That will not change udner the Sharon plan.

That area of authority will have an Arab majority in the near future. At some point Israel must either abandon the occupied territories or grant everyone within its area of authority citizenship. The Sharon plan is really only a device to deny citizenship and suffrage to non-Jews who live outside the Green Line but within the area of authority.

For the Bush administration to choose the moment of intifada in Iraq to formally approve Israel's retention of West Bank settlements outside the Green Line almost defies belief. Until this week no government on this planet except Israel recognised any West Bank settlements as lawful. Abandoning that principle without any kind of Palestinian consent or Israeli quid pro quo, apart from the presumed Jewish vote in a number of key states in November, is madness.

Indonesia Presidential Favorite Chooses Strong VP

Indonesian presidential favorite Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has picked a respected cabinet member as his running mate for the July 5 election, officials said on Sunday, dealing a blow to President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Social welfare minister Jusuf Kalla would partner Yudhoyono in the country's presidential election, said Akbar Tandjung, chairman of Golkar, the party of ousted autocrat Suharto.

'This morning, he said he will team up with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for the presidential poll,' Tandjung said, but brushed off suggestions the move would hurt Golkar.

Kalla was one of several candidates for the Golkar ticket and Megawati had also been courting him as a running mate.

Megawati's Indonesia Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) is running second to Golkar with about two-thirds of the ballots counted from the April 5 parliamentary election.

Kalla is expected to follow Yudhoyono's example and quit her cabinet in the next few days. Yudhoyono, who is now being backed by a new political party that was formed before the parliamentary elections, was Megawati's chief security minister until he resigned last month. He has since surged to presidential favorite.

Yudhoyono has pulled off a coup and split Golkar while stealing the thunder of their nominating convention. For Kalla to run with Yudhoyono means he's rejected Megawati's effort to recruit him.

The election results have not shifted since I last blogged them. Within 24 hours we will know who Golkar's candidate is. At that stage it will be possible to start thinking about whther any rival ticket can overcome Tudhoyono's early lead.

The neocon conundrum

In other words, if we remain in Iraq we will have:

1) Instability and maybe even civil war.

2) Encouragement to terrorists. Actually, we're recruiting them for the other side. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt has estimated that our post-Saddam 'harvest' will be 'a hundred bin Ladens.'

3) Loss of prestige and influence in the Arab world and beyond. According to last month's Pew Research Center international opinion survey, 'Discontent with America and its policies has intensified rather than diminished ... the war in Iraq has undermined America's credibility abroad.' Here's the view from key countries: By a 46-37 margin, Moroccans think that Iraq will be worse off post-Operation Iraqi Freedom; the 'worse off' margin is 45 points in Jordan and 53 points in Pakistan.

4) Loss of the ability to use or threaten force. As retired four-star Gen. Barry McCaffrey told Time magazine, 'There are no more U.S. troops to send to Iraq' -- without a draft, that is. So we don't hear the White House saying much about the rest of the 'axis of evil' anymore, because the North Koreans and Iranians know that the U.S. can't attack when it's mired in Mesopotamian quicksand. Meanwhile, North Korea is reported to be showing off at least three of its nuclear weapons.

5) A nourishing of future violence. Those who don't have a TV to see the gates of hell opening in Iraq might contemplate these additional numbers from the Pew Center: By a 46-36 margin, Pakistanis support suicide bombings against Americans and other Westerners in Iraq. In Morocco, suicide-bomber proponents outpolled opponents 66-to-27. And in Jordan, 70-to-24.

The war party swore that none of these unintended conequences would happen. All of them have happened. Resolving the Israel/Palestine question is now further away than ever.

I am tired of hearing withdrawal described as the cut-and-run option, especially by people who seem to fear thought itself. Bush and Blair do not want to stay in Iraq because they are brave. They want to stay because they fearful of even thinking about withdrawal. How many Iraqis, and how many others have to die to enable Bush and Blair to make grandiloquent speeches about resolve and staying the course?

Book Alleges Secret Iraq War Plan

President Bush secretly ordered a war plan drawn up against Iraq less than two months after U.S. forces attacked Afghanistan and was so worried the decision would cause a furor he did not tell everyone on his national security team, says a new book on his Iraq policy.

Bush feared that if news got out about the Iraq plan as U.S. forces were fighting another conflict, people would think he was too eager for war, journalist Bob Woodward writes in 'Plan of Attack,' a behind-the-scenes account of the 16 months leading to the Iraq invasion.

The Associated Press obtained a copy of the book, which will be available in book stores next week.

'I knew what would happen if people thought we were developing a potential war plan for Iraq,' Bush is quoted as telling Woodward. 'It was such a high-stakes moment and ... it would look like that I was anxious to go to war. And I'm not anxious to go to war.'

Bush and his aides have denied accusations they were preoccupied with Iraq at the cost of paying attention to the al-Qaida terrorist threat before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. A commission investigating the attacks just concluded several weeks of extraordinary public testimony from high-ranking government officials. One of them, former counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke, charged the Bush administration's determination to invade Iraq undermined the war on terror.

No doubt the world will be shocked to learn that Woodward has always been a liar etc etc etc...

This presidency is fast passing beyond any condemnation or satire. They accuse themselves and their own actions convict them.

U.S. Open to Plan That Supplants Council in Iraq

The Bush administration accepted on Thursday the outlines of a United Nations proposal to dissolve the Iraqi Governing Council installed last year by the United States and replace it with a caretaker government when Iraqi sovereignty is restored on July 1.

Administration officials said that the proposal by Lakhdar Brahimi, the special United Nations envoy in Iraq, to create a new government of prominent Iraqis had many details to be worked out, but that for now it was acceptable to President Bush.

'I don't see anything at this point in what he's proposing that would be of concern to us,' said Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, in an interview, adding that Mr. Brahimi's mission 'thus far has been very successful.'

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell also supported the plan, while Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, without explicitly approving it said it was likely to become a reality.

The Brahimi plan would replace the American-appointed Iraqi Governing Council with a transition government whose leaders would be appointed by the United Nations, after consultations with the United States, the Governing Council and other Iraqis. It could include members of the current Governing Council, but it is unclear how it would balance religious and regional rivalries within Iraq.

By endorsing the Brahimi plan, the administration seemed to accept diminished American influence over the Iraqi political process as self-rule approaches and after power has passed back to Baghdad. The move was the latest abandonment of an element of the plan the Americans arrived at on Nov. 15, specifying the June 30 transfer.

This is the best news out of Iraq in weeks, although if the interim constitution remains in its present form Brahimi may just be setting up a three-way power struggle between the transitional government, the inherited special agencies controlled by Chalabi, and the US in the form of its giant embassy with control of security and finance.

Golkar to hold convention to choose candidate

However, the race will largely be a fight between former armed forces chief General Wiranto and the party's chairman Akbar Tandjong. The rest of the candidates are expected to end up siding with either Wiranto or Akbar.

The candidates include former President Suharto's son-in-law Prabowo Subianto, media mogul Surya Paloh, businessman Abu Rizal Bakrie and Co-ordinating Minister for People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla.

In the preliminaries, Wiranto emerged as the most popular candidate, winning by a wide margin over his rivals and beating Akbar into third place.

But the victory of Golkar in the elections is expected to boost Akbar's chances as he played a major role in steering the party to its current victory. His political future is also much brighter after the Supreme Court quashed his graft conviction in February.

Akbar, 58, was convicted by the lower courts of misusing US$4 million (RM15.2 million) in funds from state food agency Bulog in 1999. The Supreme Court ruled Akbar was merely implementing his duty as a minister as ordered by then President B.J. Habibie.

Analysts and Golkar cadres say Wiranto has a slight lead over Akbar. And in a national context, Wiranto is far more popular than Akbar.

The charismatic general is one of the most popular figures for the presidential elections along with former security minister, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati.

A senior Golkar official admitted Golkar would have a much better chance of winning the presidential elections on July 5 if Wiranto were their candidate.

'The best chance we have of challenging Susilo and Megawati would be Wiranto,' Golkar's cochairman Marzuki Darusman told the New Straits Times in a phone interview.

'Apart from Wiranto, we have gotten the message from our rank and file that they want a military person, someone who can straighten things out and Wiranto fit the criteria expressed by the people,' said Marzuki who added that he personally would prefer Akbar.

Wiranto is essentially an appeal to the Sindrom Aku Rindu Soeharto (I miss Suharto syndrome) vote. If you take Tutut's PKPD vote as a SARS proxy it stands at 2.13%. The parties which had spectacular improvements in their vote in the DPR elections were moderate Islamic parties opposed to korupsi. That suggests Wiranto may not be Golkar's best hope.

Choosing Wiranto would mean Golkar and PDIP would have to runs separate tickets and would make the PD's Yudhoyono the lead candidate. Most Indonesians are unaware that Wiranto is wanted for crimes against humanity in East Timor as generally they are unaware of the genocide in East Timor.

Minister trying to 'discredit' Collins

Despite releasing one report into the Collins affair, the Howard Government is refusing to publish a differing legal review into the case, which backs claims the nation's spy agencies are prone to serving up politically tainted advice.

Opposition parties stepped up calls yesterday for the top-secret Brown review to be released, as John Howard again rejected calls for a royal commission.

According to defence sources, the Brown review provides some support for the Toohey report, which backed Lieutenant-Colonel Lance Collins's claims that an intelligence analysis on East Timor to the Defence Intelligence Organisation in 1998 was essentially ignored because of a 'pro-Jakarta lobby' within the defence community.

Captain Toohey also found Lieutenant-Colonel Collins had been 'disgracefully' treated, and recommended an inquiry be held into broader claims that agencies provides only the intelligence the Government wants to hear.

But the findings were debunked on Wednesday by Defence Minister Robert Hill, when he released a review by Colonel Richard Tracey QC suggesting the Toohey report was flawed. Defence sources confirmed yesterday the Brown review was favourable to Toohey's report and Lieutenant-Colonel Collins's claims - though with reservations.

All that's happening is that the Man of Steel is repeating his usual pattern of cherry-picking reports to make himself and his policies look good. This will not make the continuing intelligence failures into successes or make the allegation about a Jakarta lobby and politicised intelligence go away.

Counting Indonesia II

On a count of 87,784,200:

• Golkar 20.94%
  
• PDIP 19.74%
  
• PKB 12.12%
  
• PPP 8.27%
  
• PD 7.51%
  
• PKS 7.13%
  
• PAN 6.47%
  

And the presidenciables are:

• PDIP President Megawati
  
• Golkar DPR Speaker Akbar Tanjung, Ex Defence Minister Wiranto, Suharto Son-in-law Prabowo
  
• PS Susilo Yudhoyono
  
• PKB Ex President Gus Dur
  
• PPP Vice-president Hamzah
  
• PAN MPR Speaker Amien Rais
  

The DPR election has eliminated Tutut, Suharto's daughter and probably Prabowo and Wiranto as well. Amien Rais insists he's running but I cannot see what hopes he has. The back-to Suharto vote appears to be minimal.

Two parties can combine to run a joint ticket for president and vice-president. The possible combinations are Megawati/Tanjung and Megawati/Hamzah. It's hard to see any ticket that includes any two of Megawati, Gus Dur and Amien Rais.

The first round of the presidential election is in June. If no-one gets an absolute majority the two top candidates face a runoff in August. In presidential polls Yudhoyono is standing at over 35%. My guess is a PD/PKB/PKS coaltion against a PDIP/Golkar coalition. PDIP/Golkar would need to massively improve their standing between now and June to win that election. The parties have only a few days to name their candidates and Golkar must choose between Tanjung, Wiranto and Prabowo.

Straying the course

Overviews of 9/11 World

JIM LEHRER: You are not suggesting that we pull out, are you?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: No, I'm not. I'm suggesting that we ought to have a different strategy. I know your next segment is going to be on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. I think that issue is now conflated with Iraq. I think we will not be able to disengage unless we have progress on that issue and unless the U.N. and our allies are engaged in both issues, and they're not going to be engaged unless they have a share in the decision make. Look at the difference in Afghanistan and Iraq. In Afghanistan we have allies who are as numerous as we. We have Afghanis on our side who are really on our side because we helped them 20 years ago so and they feel grateful and committed. So we have Afghan allies, and we have a principal American there who is conciliatory and knows how to work with others. None of these three conditions apply to Iraq.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree that it is possible to separate Iraq from the Middle East?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: I think it is; I think it is impossible. I probably don't think they're as closely conflated as Zbig does. The Arab attitude -- and in the end we need Arab help for Iraq -- there's no question about that -- the Arab attitude toward United States, toward what we are doing and so on is deeply influenced by the Israeli-Palestinian issue. And they see it every night on Al-Jazeera and other television. So their attitude to what we're doing in Iraq, and what our goals are, are inevitably influenced by the course of the peace process.

Brzezinski was Jimmy Carter's NSA. Scowcroft was Bush the Elder's.

Envoy proposes caretaker government through 2005

The United Nations envoy to Iraq, Lakhdar Brahimi, laid out a blueprint for Iraq's transition to sovereignty yesterday, proposing a caretaker government to shepherd the country to free elections by the end of January 2005.

Under the proposal, the US-appointed Governing Council would be dissolved when the United States hands over power June 30, rather than expanded to form an assembly as called for in an earlier proposal US administrators promoted. Brahimi said the caretaker government would include ''respected" Iraqis who would serve as prime minister, president, and two vice presidents to run the country in the short term.

''With the security situation that . . . has been prevailing for the last few days, I don't think you will find anybody who would tell you that elections can be held in such an atmosphere," Brahimi said at a news conference, warning that security forces must establish order for a peaceful transition of power.

The US has a simple choice. They did not establish security in the weeks after the defeat of Saddam's regime because they provided inadequate forces. That option (even if the US had troops to enforce it) is now gone. That means negotiations to establish a legitimate transitional government are the only option. I seriously doubt that Bremer is competent or capable of participating in such negotiations.

A February 2003 study by the US Army War College, Reconstructing Iraq makes interesting reading. The Pentagon was warned on the security issue.

A mass uprising against occupation forces is unlikely in the early stages of any U.S. occupation of Iraq, probably up to at least the first year.

The Pentagon was warned about the Iraqi economy.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, maintaining a force of between 75,000 and 200,000 peacekeeping troops in Iraq would cost between $17 billion and $46 billion per year.

The Pentagon was warned that oil revenues should be used.

None of these occupation costs should be funded by Iraqi oil revenues, which are expected to be diverted entirely to reconstruction efforts. Any effort to divert these funds to occupation costs would be viewed as an effort to plunder Iraq�s economic resources.

When these issues were raised, even by then army chief of staff General Shineski, the response was dismissal of the warning and of Shinseki. The occupation has been a bungled mishmash from inception and there is no sign that Bush has learnt anything or forgotten anything. The only person who benefits by the closue of al-Sadr's paper is Ahmed Chalabi. At some stage the Pentagon ahs to let go fo Chalabi or face civil war.

Evidently Brahimi knows this. That would explain his emphasis on the honesty of ITG members and Chalabi's virulent opposition to Brahimi's presence. There is no reason to think the US administration knows this or anything else about Iraq.

Refusing to think is an unthinkable strategy

From the Bush press conference:

A desperate enemy is also a dangerous enemy, and our work may become more difficult before it is finished. No one can predict all the hazards that lie ahead, or the costs they will bring. Yet, in this conflict, there is no safe alternative to resolute action. The consequences of failure in Iraq would be unthinkable. Every friend of America and Iraq would be betrayed to prison and murder as a new tyranny arose. Every enemy of America and the world would celebrate, proclaiming our weakness and decadence, and using that victory to recruit a new generation of killers.

X is unthinkable is not an especially new strategy in politics or in war-making.

In Strange Victory Ernest R May writes:

Confidence that France had superiority and Germany recognised this superiority made it difficult for French and British leaders to put themselves in the place of German planners, whom Hitler had commanded to to prepare an offensive no matter what their opinions of about its wisdom or feasibility might have been. Imagination was not paralysed, far from it. Witness the the enthusiasm for opening fronts in Scandinavia or the Balkans. But the possibility that the Germans might use ingenuity to shape a surprise version of a frontal offensive seemed too fanciful for consideration.

There are about a million other examples. Let's pick one. In 1942 Singapore was impregnable. Until the Japanese did the unthinkable.

In the event, Australians discovered too late that the fundamentals of the policy upon which reliance had been placed were unsound. Britain had promised to provide a fleet for the base, whenever needed to deter Japanese aggression, initially within six weeks although this was extended to three months in 1939. When that situation finally arose in November 1941, a matter of weeks before Japan struck at Pearl Harbor and elsewhere around the Asia-Pacific region, Britain was already heavily committed in Europe and had few ships to spare. What arrived early in December was not a great fleet but a small squadron based around just two capital ships, Prince of Wales and Repulse (one very new, the other quite old). Both big ships were quickly disposed of a few days later by the Japanese in the opening hours of their invasion of Malaya.

Singapore thus remained without the fleet that was its primary rationale. Worse than this, planning for the base had called for roughly between 350 and 550 aircraft to defend it from the air. But this requirement had never been met, either in the number of aircraft provided or effective types. Despite the best efforts of Malaya's aerial defenders, including three squadrons from the Royal Australian Air Force, Singapore found itself at the mercy of an enemy that was vastly superior in air power.

Singapore is a cogent example. The fortress was built in 1921 to hold out for 70 days until the British fleet could arrive to save the day. In 1939 that was raised to 180 days, not because of anything happening in Singapore but because the British fleet was no longer available.

Continuing a bad war can be as wrong as starting bad war. The new line emerging from Bush's defenders, as quoted at Troppo Armadillo, would have us believe that although the original justification may have been bad we're there now and we have to win.

Iraq has more of the characteristics of a failed state now than it did before the invasion. The rosewater did not flow. The violence has not stopped. The economy has not significantly improved. Iraq is nowe a prime cause of terrorism. The WMDs are unfound and the prewar claims of their existence would seem unfounded. All we are left with is the war for the owrd fo the US.

Wars are not won by proclamations of resolve. that strategy failed for the US in Vietnam as it failed for the USSR in Afghanistan. At best mere talk of staying the course is magical thinking. At worst you end up with John Kerry's famous question:

How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?

The war party's predictions in Iraq have all failed thus far. What makes a prediction of staying the course any different?

Stuffing up intelligence

This week's Bulletin reports

Collins then proceeded to chronicle a list of Australian intelligence failures in recent years (formatting mine):

• 'Iraqi weapons of mass destruction
  
• delay in the (Willie) Brigitte case, warning of the Bali bombing
  
• breakdown of order in the Solomons
  
• the independence of East Timor
  
• death of an intelligence officer in Washington
  
• resumption of Indian nuclear testing
  
• fall of Suharto
  
• the media-reported Indonesian capture of an ASIS officer
  
• the Sandline affair
  
• the testing of sarin nerve agent on an Australian farm by a Japanese religious sect.
  

That is a stunning list, more so because it extends over many years and governments of both parties. More so because most of these spectacular failures have occurred in our region where we claim special expertise. What it proves is not special expertise but systemic failure.

It is hard to recall an event in the Asia-pacific they have not missed. Why then are calls for reform and investigation being ignored? Apparently vigorous prosecution of the War on Terror is not thought to require good intelligence.

Amnesty International | Iraq: Civilian hostages must be released immediately

Amnesty International is concerned about the fate of several foreign nationals held hostage in Iraq. The organization appeals to armed groups in Iraq to end the practice of hostage taking and immediately release all hostages.

'By holding civilians hostage under threat of death, armed groups in Iraq are violating a fundamental rule of international humanitarian law,' said Amnesty International.

Yet another case of the evil fellow travellers at Amnesty International always protecting the terrorists.

Balkinization | This Does Not Inspire Confidence

BUSH: I hope -- I don't want to sound like I have made no mistakes. I'm confident I have. I just haven't -- you just put me under the spot here, and maybe I'm not as quick on my feet as I should be in coming up with one.

My goodness, the man is clueless. From these remarks it appears that he has absolutely no sense that he has screwed up about anything. Indeed, he says only what he has been carefully prepared to say by his advisors, and when someone asks him a question that requires even the slightest degree of intelligent self-reflection, he freezes up, blames the questioner for ambushing him, and then incoherently babbles on about how everything he did was perfectly correct, and how we are still going to find those weapons of mass destruction.

This is the most embarassing combination of stupidity, stubborness, and self-delusion I have seen from a President of the United States in my lifetime.

And perhaps what is most chilling, this man is in charge of our armed forces. He holds the lives of millions, and the fate of our country, in his hands.

May God have mercy on our souls.

Yikes...

FBI and 9/11: The picture fills in

But on Tuesday Louis Freeh, FBI director from 1993 to 2001, rejected this implicit criticism of his tenure and the agency he once led. He said that the FBI did all it could to counter terrorism, despite constraints on resources and the fact that the terror threat was simply not a national issue at the time.

It's easy to forget today that terrorism as an issue was virtually absent from the 2000 presidential campaign, said Mr. Freeh, even though Al Qaeda operatives had attacked the USS Cole in the port of Aden, Yemen, on Oct. 12, 2000.

'We need to keep in perspective what the reality was before 9/11,' Freeh told the 9/11 commission in his public testimony.

Ahem. The reality before 9/11 was that al-Qa'ida was preparing a massive and deadly attack. The failure of various agencies and bureaucrats to detect al-Qa'ida's preparations does not alter that reality.

2001 FBI Memo Warned Of Bin Laden Aviation Cadre

APRIL 12--Two months before the September 11 attacks, FBI agent Kenneth Williams sent the below memo to bureau brass in Washington and New York warning that a cadre of Osama bin Laden disciples might be training at U.S. flight schools in preparation for future 'terror activity against civil aviation targets.' Williams suggested a nationwide FBI review to determine whether such a 'coordinated effort' could be seen in other localities. The Williams memo was roundly ignored, of course, until after the World Trade Center was leveled. (8 pages)

All this does not amount to a conspiracy. I do not even think that the FBI was told to leave the Saudi dynastic allies of the Bush family alone. I do think there's a pattern of ignoring uncomfortable facts and until 11 September 2001 terrorism was an uncomfortable fact that interfered with the drive on issues like missile defence and Iraq.

We were told the PDB contained only historical information. We now know that is untrue. We were told no-one could imagine the use of weaponised planes. We now know that is untrue. We are told no-one could connect the dots to fire the silver bullet. It is fast becoming obvious that is also untrue. Certainly the Busheviks could not connect the dots, but that is a different porposition.

It would also be interesting to know what is in the rest of the 6 August PDB. The page numbers have been blacked out and Die Zeit reported the PDb as being 11 and half pages on 1 October 2001. What we have is damning enough, and it's clear that the Buh administration frequently uses the classification system to cover it's arse. What a pity they rarely use it to cover anyone else's arse, like the people who died on 11 September.

Tip via DailyKOS

When puppets pull the strings

A small event on Sunday, April 4, the very day after the move against al-Sadr prompted the revolt, provides the missing piece to the puzzle. For that was when the CPA announced the name of Iraq's putative new defense minister for the post-June 30 government. His name is Ali Allawi and he is a loyal, close associate of Ahmed Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress. More, he is Chalabi's nephew.

Chalabi, longtime exile leader, has never had a power base within Iraq. He is a smooth operator, convicted of embezzling millions from the Petra Bank of Jordan -- sentenced in absentia to 22 years of hard labor -- but championed by the neoconservatives of Washington. They had lined up Chalabi to be their man in Baghdad years before the conquest of Iraq. Although he is a Shiia, the 60-year-old Chalabi had not lived there since age 12, and when he returned he surrounded himself with a U.S.-paid personal militia but had no political following. Without his U.S. sponsors, he would not last five minutes as a force. He is widely suspected of profiting enormously from U.S. contracts in the country. After the war, Chalabi proudly boasted of providing misleading intelligence to the U.S. government that was indispensable in spurring the invasion. He remains on the Pentagon's payroll -- $340,000 a month -- not counting the $40 million that he's received at the insistence of the Republican-dominated Congress over the past decade. He is a focal point of mistrust on all sides within Iraq.

Just as Bremer will not make the slightest move without the approval of his Pentagon bosses, the Defense Department policymakers continue to rely on Chalabi alone for their political assessments on Iraq. In private conversation, as in public, they remain amazingly enthusiastic about Chalabi's supposed political skills, and even genius, and proclaim repeatedly that he is the only man with the brilliance to hold Iraq together and make it work. Give Chalabi a free hand after June 30 and give him all the U.S. firepower he wants to crush his foes -- this is their master plan; there is no other.

This is the same Chalabi who controls most of the 'special agencies' the allegedly sovereign Iraqi transitional government will inherit from Paul Bremer. Bremer also granted the new defence minister a 5-year term (arguably a violation of the transitional Administrative Law, but then so was closing down al-Sadr's paper).

Perhaps I shouldn't have slept with Rupert. For Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz to leap under the covers with him, Ahmed must have something going for him.

MTV Awards: Gollum Acceptance Video!

Well, watching this was a lot more fun than my recent encounter with Rupert, although, now that I think of it Rupert and Gollum are not completely unalike.

Tip via Fables of the Reconstruction

Denial

There is absolutely no truth to the rumour that the light blogging is due to a passionate affair with David Beckham. I did sleep with Rupert Murdoch recently, but for some reason none of Murdoch's papers will write me a huge cheque for revealing the salacious details. So there.

Still not here

Okay, I'm still away. Really. Truly. Something weird had got into my post about light blogging so I had to delete it.

Blogging is not addictive. And no-one could have imagined that the terrorists would use planes as weapons. Except the FBI, the CIA, the government of France, anyone who had ever seen a World War II movie involving kamikaze attacks, anyone who'd read Tom Clancy...

It's all true, I tell you.

White House shows its brief

The White House PDB has now been released, The title is indeed: 'Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US'.

The millennium plotting in Canada in 1999 may have been part of Bin Ladin's first serious attempt to implement a terrorist strike in the US. Convicted plotter Ahmed Ressam has told the FBI that he conceived the idea to attack Los Angeles International Airport himself, but that Bin Ladin lieutenant Abu Zubaydah encouraged him and helped facilitate the operation. Ressam also said that in 1998 Abu Zubaydah was planning his own US attack.

Ressam says Bin Ladin was aware of the Los Angeles operation.

Ressam, an Algerian, was arrested in Port Angeles, near Seattle, on 14 December 2000. He has since been convicted, remains in US custody and has cooperated with US intelligence in providing information about al-Qa'ida.

The Seattle Times in depth report on the Millennium plot says:

Humphries was eager to question Ressam about what he might know about the attacks on New York and Washington. But it took the agent five days to make it home to Seattle.

When Humphries was able to show Ressam a photograph of Moussaoui, Ressam said he recognized the French national as having been with him at the Khalden camp in 1998.

Given the opportunity, might Ressam have identified Moussaoui earlier, spurring the FBI in Washington to pursue the Moussaoui search warrant?

Might that warrant have yielded information that could have helped the bureau disrupt the Sept. 11 plot?

Humphries was haunted by the possibilities.

One wonders what FBI Agent Humphries thinks now.

According to MSNBC:

At the time of his [Moussaoui's] arrest FBI agents found flight manuals for the Boeing 747-400, a flight-simulator computer program, binoculars, two knives, fighting shields and a laptop computer.

Moussaoui was arrested on 16 August 2001. A government on battle stations, as Rice claims, had only to connect the Ressam dot and the Moussaoui dot and they had a straight line to al-Qa'ida, planes and a major attack inside the US.

That is really not a lot of dots to connect. It's not even 6 dots of separation.

Chemical attack on London foiled

A sophisticated al-Qaeda plot to launch a deadly chemical attack on central London was revealed by United States intelligence agents yesterday, as a 17-year-old boy faced separate terror charges of conspiring to cause a major explosion on UK soil.

It is understood that the foiled attack, details of which are believed to have been leaked by the CIA and were revealed on the US news network ABC, would have involved the use of osmium tetroxide, a chemical agent that produces deadly fumes that 'drown' victims by choking them.

The plot to use chemical weapons in central London was discovered by surveillance experts based at GCHQ, the British intelligence service's electronic listening centre at Cheltenham, who are said to have alerted Scotland Yard after hearing the chemical mentioned during routine monitoring of UK-based suspects.

Gee, they managed to stop a terrorist attack by good intelligence and police work? Shouldn't they have invaded Mexico or somehting?

US village bans Aussie flag

Last year -- two years after Mrs Hogberg and her husband Clarence, 82, moved into their home north of Tampa -- the Windermere Garden Villas Home Owners Association board passed a community bylaw banning any flag apart from the US Stars and Stripes.

The Hogbergs applied to keep their Australian flag but were refused. A request from their neighbours, retired US Lieutenant Colonel Dick Jones and his wife, to fly the US Marine Corps flag, was granted immediately.

An announcement published in the Windermere community newsletter last month stated the Jones' request was authorised 'with great appreciation for their years of military service' and went on to add 'we are all honoured to have the Jones' as our neighbours'.

In a letter of appeal to be considered today by the Windermere board, Mrs Hogberg writes her husband served as a US Navy pilot in World War II and her first husband, Dr Donald Gibson, was a US Navy flight surgeon.

Seven of Mrs Hogberg's uncles fought alongside US troops in the Pacific during World War II.

'I believe I should point out, in case you are unaware of the facts, that Australia was a staunch ally of the USA in WWII, Korea, Vietnam, and the Gulf Wars,' her letter reads.

Mrs Hogberg, who also refers to Australia's military commitment in Iraq and Australia's losses in the Bali and September 11 terrorism attacks, writes: 'This is the first time in my life that I have felt discriminated against because of my Australian race/heritage/origin.

'Surely the Australian flag can not be offensive to anyone for any reason in the USA.'

Weird, weird, weird...

US recognises Australian soldier

The United States has awarded a senior Australian Army officer a Legion of Merit for his work in Iraq.

Brigadier Steve Meekin received the honour for his role in the coalition's Iraq Survey Group, which involved collecting and making safe more than 3,000 tonnes of Iraqi military material.

Defence Minister Robert Hill has paid tribute to Brigadier Meekin, saying the Legion of Merit is a significant US award.

This is weird. Last October Hill said to the Senate:

Brigadier Meekin is the Commander of the Joint Captured Materiel Exploitation Centre, which has the mission of examining and locating Iraq's conventional weapons, and is only peripherally involved in the investigation of Iraq's WMD programs.

How do you go from 'peripherally involved' to the Legion of Merit for your 'role in the coalition's Iraq Survey Group'?

Counting Indonesia

According to the KPU (electoral commission):

• PDIP 18.5%
  
• PKB 15.25
  
• Golkar 14.04
  
• PD 13.4
  
• PKS 11.57
  
• PPP 7.03
  

This is not what the polls predicted. It may just be an outlier called by early voting. It appears to be on a count of about 0.5%. If this trend stands the party of Gus Dur is running second to the party of Megawati. The Muslim parties have done better than expected and Golkar has done significantly worse. You'd expect Golkar to look weak at this stage when the outer islands are still counting. The Muslim surge was not expected at any stage.

The count is now up to 813 000 votes and the percentages are:

• PDIP 19.05%
  
• PKB 18.43
  
• Golkar 15.04
  
• PD 10.71
  
• PKS 9.59
  
• PPP 7.45
  

The surge for the PKB (Gus Dur) seems to be holding. The polls that showed Yudhoyono leading Megawati are not supported by PDIP running around 10 points ahad of PD. These figures (as always if they hold) are very bad news for Amien Rais, MPR Speaker and PAN leader. On these figures PAN is no longer a major party. Tutut's paln to succeed her father has only 2.1% so she can be dropped from the list of presidenciables. So probably, can Rais.

With the count at 1,393,540, PKB is has fallen away. Yudhoyono's presidential candidacy looks a lot stronger. PDIP is doing better than expected and Golkar is doing much worse.

• PDIP 18.7
  
• Golkar 15.46
  
• PD 13.61
  
• PKS 13.4
  
• PKB 10.98
  
• PPP 6.67
  
• PAN.6.44
  

This is on a count of 3 895 319 so the results are convrging on the poll predictions. The shift is not enough to rescue the presidential ambitions of Amien Rais or Tutut.

• Golkar 23.97
  
• PDIP 16.94%
  
• PKB 9.87
  
• PKS 9.73
  
• PD 9.26
  
• PPP 6.48
  
• PAN 6.26
  

This morning's SMH reports:

Evidence of this discontent with the lack of reform has come loud and clear through the ballot box in the first elections since Ms Megawati's PDI-P party received a 34 per cent vote in 1999 by promising a future for the country's poor.

In this campaign the PDI-P outspent the other parties by a mile, festooning every town across the country with flags and paying the poor to attend rallies.

But, in the privacy of the polling booth, more than four out of every 10 voters walked away. They went to the Democrat Party, so new it was unheard of three months ago. And they went to the Prosperous Justice Party, not because it supports Islamic law, but because it is considered even by its critics to be clean. And most importantly, they did not return to the Golkar party they used to support out of of fear when Soeharto was running the place.

Many of them might be hungry and fondly remember the economic benefits Soeharto delivered, but they still resent the excesses of his corrupt regime.

Sure, Golkar might have outpolled PDI-P, but this result is a worst-ever, a big slap in the face, especially for its chairman and presidential hopeful Akbar Tandjung. Convicted on bribery charges for stealing money meant for the poor, he convinced the judges he was not guilty.

On the evidence of the Golkar vote, he did not manage to convince too many voters of the same thing. Most of them seem to spit out the word "korupsi" at the mere mention of his name.

This result has thrown the presidential election in July right open. The Democrat Party leader, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, must now be the favourite, not only because his party has come from nowhere, but also because so many people consider him the cleanest of the candidates.

Yudhoyono has a reasonable chance of drawing support from all 4 Islamic parties in the Big 6. That would leave a Golkar/PDIP candidate the impossible task of working from a base of around 40% of the electorate, especially if they run a korupsi candidate like Akbar Tanjung or Wiranto.

On a count of 4,999,330 the Big 6 numbers are:

• Golkar 25.15
  
• PDIP 16.83
  
• PKS 9.37
  
• PKB 9.25
  
• PD 8.76
  
• PPP 6.57
  
• PAN 6.4
  

The vast majority of these votes are coming from Java, Bali and Southern Sumatra. Those regions tend to vote PDIP so this is looking very bad for Megawati. The outer islands votes will liey show a surge for Golkar.

U.S. doesn't want to give up power

Beneath these machinations lies a dilemma for the Bush administration. While desiring the appearance of democracy for domestic and international purposes, it is afraid to surrender authority.

Its problem is that a free Iraq is unlikely to implement the U.S. agenda: a secular state, permanent military bases, American direction of the oil industry, a privatized economy and a foreign policy consonant with Washington's.

In designing their mission for Iraq, top Bush officials were hoping to re-enact the successes of the early Cold War. A reconstructed West Germany had helped consolidate Western Europe into a bastion of democratic capitalism and American power.

They envisioned a reformed, malleable post-Saddam government that could spark a similar transformation of the Middle East. Yet unlike Iraq, Germany possessed a tradition of parliamentary governance, an established capitalist class and a strong national identity, which made the transfer of political power less worrisome.

Moreover, Germany had first declared war on the United States, not the other way around. And the American occupiers possessed the authority that came from fighting and defeating an enemy, which had actually surrendered and disarmed.

By contrast, the U.S. strategy of racing to Baghdad bypassed tens of thousands of enemy troops, who retained their weapons and remained dangerous.

The result has been a disastrous occupation in which security remains an agonizing problem. The administration's current inability to arrange a viable political transition is but the most recent illustration of its foolishness in launching an invasion in the first place.

Boldface mine. Now that it's clear the Iraqi transitional government will not even control its own treasury we know the 'sovereign' Iraqi transitional government is going to lack sovereignty, security forces, and money. Other than a brief flag-raising ceremony at ITG headquarters what are they going to do?

The 2004 Indonesian Elections: How the System Works andWhat the Parties Stand For

The first and most obvious feature of the new electoral system created by the Members of the current DPR in the four political laws of 20032 is that the system is clearly designed to favour the existing major political parties. All candidates in the DPR election must be part of an eligible party ticket, with independent or individual candidates not being allowed. Parties must be registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the KPU must be satisfied that the party conforms to a number of criteria set out in the legislation. To be eligible to contest the 2004 election a party must hold at least 2% of the seats in the current DPR. Only 6 parties were large enough to meet this criterion.

Parties that do not meet this criterion must convince the KPU that they have offices or a �full leadership� in at least two-thirds of Indonesia�s provinces and two-thirds of the districts[/regencies] (kabupaten) in those provinces. Eighteen parties have met these latter criteria, giving a total of 24 parties eligible to contest the election. Many of those parties are ones that were ruled ineligible on the first criteria (holding less than 2% of DPR seats) and have simply renamed themselves. For example, Partai Keadilan (Justice Party), whose 7 seats in the existing DPR was not enough to pass the threshold 2%, will compete as Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (Justice & Welfare Party).

Sherlock groups the Big 5 - PDIP, Golkar, PKB, PPP and PAN - according to 3 great aliran (currents) in Indonesian society, broadly secular nationalism - PDIP and Golkar, traditionalist Islam - PKB, modernist Islam - PPP and PAN. The Big 5 all have roughly similar platforms which bear little resemblance to their performance in power. The cabinet includes members of all the Big 5 (and several other parties as well) and there is not really a governing party in any familiar sense. In regional terms, PDIP dominates Java. Golkar is stronger in the outer islands. PKB does well in East Java. Non-Muslims tend to support PDIP or Golkar.

Incidentally the 1999 results took 2 months to count. This election is more complex because it includes voting for the DPR, DPD, provincial DPRDs and regency DPRDs. It will not take 2 months but it could take a while.

Sherlock's entire report is available (pdf).

Escalation of fighting in Iraq

Foreign Affairs Editor Peter Cave reports from Baghdad.

PETER CAVE: Until the closure last week of his newspaper for allegedly urging violent resistance against the US led occupation, Moqtada al-Sadr and his black shirted private army were a minor irritation to the US civilian administrator Paul Bremer.

Now the young cleric has become a focus of national attention and day and day after day he's turned tens out thousands of supporters out in Baghdad, Basra and around the holy city of Najaf where he has his base and where the protest turned to bloodshed.

PAUL BREMER: This morning a group of people in Najaf have crossed the line and they have moved to violence. This will not be tolerated, this will not be tolerated by the coalition, this will not be tolerated by the Iraqi people and this will not be tolerated by the Iraqi security forces.

PETER CAVE: In Baghdad thousands of Sadr supporters gridlocked the city centre as they laid siege to Paul Bremer's headquarters throughout the day. Shiites were repressed under Saddam Hussein and I asked Imam Hazin al Aaraji, who was leading the protest, if he now saw the American administration as the enemy?

Bremer is a fool. The coalition has maintained order with some difficulty with its current troop levels. The occupation's tactics in the Sunni triangle have not been a spectacular success in garnering popular support. If the Shia governorates are treated the same way they will react the same way.

If the Shia go into active rebellion that will multiply the population of potential rebels by around 5. Is Bremer going to increase the CPA's troops in Iraq by the same multiplier? al-Sadr is certainly the least attractive of the Shia leaders. That is not going to effect his ability to raise hell in Baghdad and the South. Nor are breathless Bremer blustering.

This is a high price to pay for Bremer's desire to close a newspaper despite the freedon of press guaranteed by the interim constitution.

Aceh voters urged to show joyful face

There are rumors however that the Democratic Party, which was co-founded by Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has more room to maneuver in the province compared to other parties. The party has denied the allegation.

In the meantime, human rights activists alleged on Sunday that the Indonesian Military (TNI) had asked voters in the areas in which the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) influence remains strong, to arrive at designated polling stations at least by Sunday, or one day before the election. Several subdistricts in Bireun, Tiro area in Pidie, Nissam and Sawang in North Aceh and several undisclosed villages in West Aceh and South Aceh, are declared to be the strongholds of GAM.

'Dozens of people were arrested for their refusal to leave their villages to vote,' said an activist, who asked not to be named.

The Aceh Military Administration however denied the allegations.

The electoral law forbids regional and local parties. This excludes Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh Movement) and Organisasi Papua Merdeka (Free Papua Organisation) campaigning or winning seats. It also ensures that all parties remain firmly under the control of members of the Jakarta elite. Aceh has been under martial law for over a year and the international press has been forbidden to report there. Papua is not under martial law but the human rights situation is grim.

What a tangled war we weave...

Downer denies Kabul pleaded for troops

Mr Rudd said Mr Powell's admission suggested that Australia went to war based on a lie and Mr Howard should explain why Australian troops were sent to Iraq.

"If Labor win the next election, they're going to have to work with Colin Powell," Mr Downer said. "My advice to them is that I don't think Colin Powell is going to think Kevin Rudd is a great guy if Kevin Rudd is running around suggesting he's a liar. I don't think Colin Powell will warm to that.

Powell doubts evidence for war

COLIN Powell has conceded that evidence he presented to the United Nations to justify the US-led invasion of Iraq might have been wrong.

The US Secretary of State admitted that the dramatic case he made to the UN Security Council in February 2003 was based on flawed intelligence about Iraq's weapons programs.

'At the time I was preparing that presentation it was presented to me as being solid,' he said at the weekend.

'Now it appears not to be the case, that it was that solid.'

Mr Powell made the admission when talking to reporters on a flight home from a trip to Europe.

It's never been easy to take Foreign Minister Alexander Downer seriously. His recent habit of screeching anti-American at the drop of a hat (any hat, anywhere) is making it even harder.

Bush and Blair made secret pact for Iraq war

President George Bush first asked Tony Blair to support the removal of Saddam Hussein from power at a private White House dinner nine days after the terror attacks of 11 September, 2001.

According to Sir Christopher Meyer, the former British Ambassador to Washington, who was at the dinner when Blair became the first foreign leader to visit America after 11 September, Blair told Bush he should not get distracted from the war on terror's initial goal - dealing with the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

Bush, claims Meyer, replied by saying: 'I agree with you, Tony. We must deal with this first. But when we have dealt with Afghanistan, we must come back to Iraq.' Regime change was already US policy.

Really this only confirms what has long been thought. Blair himself said Bush would have invaded much earlier without Blair's constraining influence.

Big question for the Man of Steel - was he privy to this arrangement? He was in Washington on 11 September and saw Bush and other heavies the next day. Arguably Howard committed himself to the War on Terror while still in Washington and without consulting the cabinet or parliament.

Wikipedia | Single non-transferable vote

The potential for tactical voting is large. Receiving only one vote, the rational voter must only vote for a candidate that has a chance of winning, but will not win by too great a margin. This also creates a gigantic opportunity for tactical nominations, with parties nominating candidates similar to their opponents' candidates in order to split the vote.

SNTV also results in complicated intra-party dynamics because in a SNTV system, a candidate must not only run against candidates from the other party, he or she must also run against candidates from their own party.

Because running on issues may lead to a situation in which a candidate becomes too popular and therefore steals votes away from other allied candidates, it has been argued that SNTV encourages legislators to join factions which consist of patron-client relationships in which a powerful legislator can apportion votes to his or her supporters. It has been argued that many of the characteristics of the Kuomintang in Taiwan and the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan arise because of this.

In addition, parties must ensure that their supporters evenly distribute their votes among the party's candidates. In Taiwan, the Kuomintang does this by sending members a letter telling them which candidate to vote for. With the Democratic Progressive Party, vote sharing is done informally, as members of a family or small group will coordinate their votes. The New Party had a surprisingly effective system by asking party supporters to vote for the candidate that corresponded to their birthdate.

Iraq's interim constitution, Article 32(B) mandates SNTV for the election of the president of the National Assembly. The three highest candidates are elected respectively president, first and second deputy president of the assembly.

A system that so drastically favours horse-trading and gives rise to unexpected results does not obviously recommend itself to a nation with limited experience of parliamentary wheeling and dealing and a pronounced tendency to blame adverse results on conspiracy.

Indonesian elections

The parliamentary numbers are drawn from Elections around the world. The interpretation is mine.

President
Megawati Soekarnaputri (2001) PDIP
The president is elected for a five year term by popular vote. The government is dominated by the PDIP. Gus Dur (also named Abdulrahman Wahid) was elected by the Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat (People's Consultative Assembly) in 1999 and later removed from office and replaced by Megawati, his vice-president. The MPR was changed in 2003 to comprise the elected members of the DPR and DPD. Its powers have been reduced greatly. The first presidential election by popular vote is in June.

Parliament

The Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (Council of People's Representatives) has 550 deputies elected for a five year term by proportional representation in multi-member constituencies.

There also a new senate, the Dewan Perwakilan Daerah (Council of Regional Representatives), with 4 members from each province elected on a non-partisan basis.

The parties in the current DPR are:

• Partai Demokrasi Indonesia - Perjuangan (Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle) PDIP 37.4% 154 deputies
  
  
• Partai Golongan Karya (Party of Functional Groups). This was the ruling party of the Suharto dictatorship's New Order Golkar 20.9% 120 deputies
  
  
• Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (National Awakening Party). Former president Gus Dur heads this moderate Muslim party. He was elected by the MPR in 1999 on a deal brokered by Amien Rais and the Muslim parties. PKB 17.4% 51 deputies.
  
  
• Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (United Development Party, moderate Muslim) .The PPP was one of the two licit opposition parties under the New Order. PPP 10.7% 58 deputies.
  
  
• Partai Amanat Nasional (National Mandate Party, moderate Mulsim) MPR Speaker Amien Rais leads the PAN. PAN 7.3% 35 deputies.
  
  
• Partai Bulan Bintang (Crescent Star Party) PBB 1.8% 14 deputies
  
  
• Partai Keadilan (Justice Party) PK 1.3% 6 deputies
  
  
• Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan (Justice and Unity Party) PKP 0.9% 6 deputies
  
  
• Partai Nahdlatul Umat (Nahdlatul Ummat Party) PNU 0.6% 3 deputies
  
  
• Partai Persatuan (United Party) PP 0.5% 1 deputy
  
  
• Partai Demokrasi Indonesia (Democratic Party of Indonesia) PDI 0.4% 3 deputies. The PDI was one of the two licit opposition parties under the New Order. The Suharto regime intervened to sack Megawati as party president. She then formed the PDI-P as an independent party that went on to win the 1999 election.
  
  
• Nasional Indonesia Front Marhaenis (Indonesian National Party Front Marhaenis) PNIFM 0.4% 1 deputy
  
  
• Partai Nasional Indonesia (Indonesian National Party)
  PNI 0.4% 1 deputy
  
  
• Partai Nasional Indonesia Massa Marhaen (Indonesian National Party Massa Marhaen) PNIMM 0.4% 1 deputy
  
  
• Partai Syarikat Islam Indonesia (Indonesian United Islam Party)
  PSII 0.3% 1 deputy
  

The declared presidential candidates are:

• President Megawato Sukarnoputri PDI-P
  
• DPR Speaker Tanjong Akbar Golkar
  
• Ex Chief of the armed forces Wiranto Golkar
  
• Siti 'Tutut' Hardijanti Rukmana (Suharto's daughter and last social welfare minister)
  
• MPR Speaker Amien Rais PAN
  
• Expresident Gus Dur PKB
  
• Ex security minister Bambang Yudhoyono
  

The legislative election will show the party's current standings and give some sign of who can form a winning coalition. Megawati hopes to run with Akbar Tanjung as her vice-presidential candidate and combine the PDI-P/Golkar vote.